Global, regional, and national burden of Parkinson's disease, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

GBD 2016 Parkinson's Disease Collaborators, E Ray Dorsey, Alexis Elbaz, Emma Nichols, Nooshin Abbasi, Foad Abd-Allah, Ahmed Abdelalim, Jose C Adsuar, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Carol Brayne, Jee-Young J Choi, Daniel Collado-Mateo, Nabila Dahodwala, Huyen Phuc Do, Dumessa Edessa, Matthias Endres, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Kyle J Foreman, Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe, Rahul Gupta, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J Hankey, Simon I Hay, Mohamed I Hegazy, Desalegn T Hibstu, Amir Kasaeian, Yousef Khader, Ibrahim Khalil, Young-Ho Khang, Yun Jin Kim, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Giancarlo Logroscino, João Massano, Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim, Mohammed A Mohammed, Alireza Mohammadi, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Mohsen Naghavi, Binh Thanh Nguyen, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Mayowa Ojo Owolabi, David M Pereira, Maarten J Postma, Mostafa Qorbani, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Kedir T Roba, Hosein Safari, Saeid Safiri, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw, Mari Smith, Cassandra E I Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Nu Thi Truong, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Santos Villafaina, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Ronny Westerman, Tissa Wijeratne, Andrea S Winkler, Bach Tran Xuan, Naohiro Yonemoto, Valery L Feigin, Theo Vos, Christopher J L Murray, GBD 2016 Parkinson's Disease Collaborators, E Ray Dorsey, Alexis Elbaz, Emma Nichols, Nooshin Abbasi, Foad Abd-Allah, Ahmed Abdelalim, Jose C Adsuar, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Carol Brayne, Jee-Young J Choi, Daniel Collado-Mateo, Nabila Dahodwala, Huyen Phuc Do, Dumessa Edessa, Matthias Endres, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Kyle J Foreman, Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe, Rahul Gupta, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J Hankey, Simon I Hay, Mohamed I Hegazy, Desalegn T Hibstu, Amir Kasaeian, Yousef Khader, Ibrahim Khalil, Young-Ho Khang, Yun Jin Kim, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Giancarlo Logroscino, João Massano, Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim, Mohammed A Mohammed, Alireza Mohammadi, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Mohsen Naghavi, Binh Thanh Nguyen, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Mayowa Ojo Owolabi, David M Pereira, Maarten J Postma, Mostafa Qorbani, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Kedir T Roba, Hosein Safari, Saeid Safiri, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw, Mari Smith, Cassandra E I Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Nu Thi Truong, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Santos Villafaina, Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs, Ronny Westerman, Tissa Wijeratne, Andrea S Winkler, Bach Tran Xuan, Naohiro Yonemoto, Valery L Feigin, Theo Vos, Christopher J L Murray

Abstract

Background: Neurological disorders are now the leading source of disability globally, and ageing is increasing the burden of neurodegenerative disorders, including Parkinson's disease. We aimed to determine the global burden of Parkinson's disease between 1990 and 2016 to identify trends and to enable appropriate public health, medical, and scientific responses.

Methods: Through a systematic analysis of epidemiological studies, we estimated global, regional, and country-specific prevalence and years of life lived with disability for Parkinson's disease from 1990 to 2016. We estimated the proportion of mild, moderate, and severe Parkinson's disease on the basis of studies that used the Hoehn and Yahr scale and assigned disability weights to each level. We jointly modelled prevalence and excess mortality risk in a natural history model to derive estimates of deaths due to Parkinson's disease. Death counts were multiplied by values from the Global Burden of Disease study's standard life expectancy to compute years of life lost. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were computed as the sum of years lived with disability and years of life lost. We also analysed results based on the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility.

Findings: In 2016, 6·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·0-7·3) individuals had Parkinson's disease globally, compared with 2·5 million (2·0-3·0) in 1990. This increase was not solely due to increasing numbers of older people, because age-standardised prevalence rates increased by 21·7% (95% UI 18·1-25·3) over the same period (compared with an increase of 74·3%, 95% UI 69·2-79·6, for crude prevalence rates). Parkinson's disease caused 3·2 million (95% UI 2·6-4·0) DALYs and 211 296 deaths (95% UI 167 771-265 160) in 2016. The male-to-female ratios of age-standardised prevalence rates were similar in 2016 (1·40, 95% UI 1·36-1·43) and 1990 (1·37, 1·34-1·40). From 1990 to 2016, age-standardised prevalence, DALY rates, and death rates increased for all global burden of disease regions except for southern Latin America, eastern Europe, and Oceania. In addition, age-standardised DALY rates generally increased across the Socio-demographic Index.

Interpretation: Over the past generation, the global burden of Parkinson's disease has more than doubled as a result of increasing numbers of older people, with potential contributions from longer disease duration and environmental factors. Demographic and potentially other factors are poised to increase the future burden of Parkinson's disease substantially.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Age-standardised prevalence of Parkinson's disease per 100 000 population by location for both sexes, 2016 ATG=Antigua and Barbuda. FSM=Federated States of Micronesia. Isl=Islands. LCA=Saint Lucia. TLS=Timor-Leste. TTO=Trinidad and Tobago. VCT=Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Global prevalence of Parkinson's disease by age and sex, 2016 Prevalence is expressed as the percentage of the population that is affected by the disease. Shading indicates 95% uncertainty intervals.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Global YLD and YLL rates per 100 000 population due to Parkinson's disease by age, 2016 Shading indicates 95% uncertainty intervals. YLDs=years lived with disability. YLLs=years of life lost.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Age-standardised DALY rates for Parkinson's disease by 21 Global Burden of Disease regions by Socio-demographic Index, 1990–2016 Expected values based on Socio-demographic Index and disease rates in all locations are shown as the black line. The black line represents expected values of age-standardised DALY rates for each value of Socio-demographic Index and is based on a Gaussian process regression of results for all Global Burden of Disease locations over the entire 1990–2016 estimation period. DALY=disability-adjusted life-year.

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