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Diagnostic Accuracy of GPT-4o and Claude for HEART Score Calculation in Chest Pain (LLM-HEART)

2026年6月22日 更新者:Emir Ünal、Marmara University Pendik Training and Research Hospital

Diagnostic Accuracy of Large Language Models (GPT-4o and Claude) in HEART Score Calculation and 30-Day MACE Prediction in Emergency Department Chest Pain Patients: A Prospective Observational Validation Study Against Three-Expert Consensus

This prospective observational diagnostic accuracy study evaluates whether large language models (LLMs) - GPT-4o (OpenAI, gpt-4o-2024-11-20) and Claude (Anthropic, claude-sonnet-4-6) - can accurately calculate HEART scores from unstructured Turkish clinical notes and predict 30-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in emergency department patients presenting with non-traumatic chest pain.

The study will enroll 600 consecutive adult patients. For each patient, the same anonymized data (free-text anamnesis, ECG report text, troponin value, and age) will be independently processed by both LLMs via separate API calls with deterministic settings (temperature=0, JSON format). A three-expert consensus HEART score - derived through blinded independent scoring by three emergency medicine physicians with majority-vote adjudication - serves as the reference standard for agreement analysis. Actual 30-day MACE (all-cause death, AMI Type 1/2/4b, unplanned revascularization) determined via national health database and telephone follow-up serves as the outcome for diagnostic accuracy analysis.

A secondary documentation-quality sub-study will quantify how spontaneously Turkish emergency anamnesis notes capture HEART score parameters.

調査の概要

詳細な説明

AI SYSTEM SPECIFICATIONS AND PROMPT PROTOCOL Two distinct large language models (LLMs) will be evaluated as index tests: OpenAI GPT-4o (model string: gpt-4o-2024-11-20) and Anthropic Claude (model string: claude-sonnet-4-6). To ensure reproducibility and eliminate stochastic variation, both models will be accessed via standardized API calls using deterministic parameters (temperature = 0, max_tokens = 500, and strict JSON response format). The exact system prompt layout will be locked prior to initialization, and its integrity will be verified using a SHA-256 cryptographic hash. The models will evaluate each patient record independently in zero-shot isolation, with no cross-contamination or conversational history retention between runs.

REFERENCE STANDARD CONSENSUS PROTOCOL The reference standard consists of a structured consensus HEART score established by three independent emergency medicine physicians (each possessing >=3 years of clinical experience and specific training on HEART score criteria). The physicians will review the anonymized clinical charts while remaining strictly blinded to the LLM outputs and the final 30-day MACE outcomes. For each of the 5 HEART components (scored 0, 1, or 2), a majority vote (2/3 agreement) will determine the final component score. In the event of complete disagreement across all three reviewers on a specific component, a fourth independent adjudicator will resolve the tie.

INDETERMINATE RESULTS MANAGEMENT

In strict compliance with STARD-AI 2025 guidelines, cases with missing or uninterpretable parameters within the free-text clinical notes will be classified into predefined indeterminate tiers:

  1. Complete Cases: 0 indeterminate components (eligible for primary diagnostic accuracy analysis).
  2. Partial Indeterminate: Exactly 1 missing component preventing definitive automatic calculation.
  3. Full Indeterminate: >=2 missing components. The proportion of indeterminate classifications will be quantified for both LLMs and evaluated alongside the routine documentation quality of the charts.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND AGREEMENT WEIGHTING Statistical power and sample size calculation are based on the Hanley-McNeil methodology for the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC). To achieve an expected AUC of 0.85 with a non-inferiority margin of 0.05, a power of 80%, and a two-sided alpha of 0.05, the primary complete-case analysis requires 600 evaluable patients. Accounting for an anticipated 15% indeterminate rate, a total enrollment target of 690 patients is set. Inter-rater agreement between each LLM and the expert consensus will be computed using quadratic weighted Cohen's Kappa for the ordinal total HEART score (0-10) and linear weighted Kappa for individual components (0-2). Diagnostic performance metrics (sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV) will be calculated at prespecified binary (>=4) and trimodal thresholds with 95% Wilson confidence intervals. Pairwise comparison of AUC values between GPT-4o and Claude will be executed using the DeLong test.

DATA ANONYMIZATION AND PRIVACY To ensure full compliance with local personal data protection legislation (KVKK), all free-text emergency department notes will undergo strict de-identification. Patient names, institutional ID numbers, precise dates, and specific demographic identifiers will be stripped entirely before formatting the data payload for API transmission.

PATIENT AND PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT BEYANI Patient and public involvement was not applicable to this study as it involves the analysis of routinely collected clinical data.

研究の種類

観察的

入学 (推定)

690

連絡先と場所

このセクションには、調査を実施する担当者の連絡先の詳細と、この調査が実施されている場所に関する情報が記載されています。

研究連絡先

  • 名前:Emir Ünal, Assistant Professor
  • 電話番号:+905327766010
  • メール:emirunal@gmail.com

研究連絡先のバックアップ

研究場所

    • Istanbul
      • Istanbul、Istanbul、トルコ(Türkiye)、34870
        • 募集
        • Marmara University Pendik Training and Research Hospital
        • コンタクト:
        • 副調査官:
          • Emre Kudu
        • 副調査官:
          • Erhan Altunbas
        • 副調査官:
          • Sinan Karacabey

参加基準

研究者は、適格基準と呼ばれる特定の説明に適合する人を探します。これらの基準のいくつかの例は、人の一般的な健康状態または以前の治療です。

適格基準

就学可能な年齢

  • 大人
  • 高齢者

健康ボランティアの受け入れ

いいえ

サンプリング方法

非確率サンプル

調査対象母集団

The study population consists of consecutive adult patients presenting with a chief complaint of non-traumatic chest pain to the emergency department of Marmara University Pendik Training and Research Hospital, a tertiary care academic medical center in Istanbul, Turkey. This target population comprises real-world emergency medicine admissions that require acute coronary syndrome risk stratification and evaluation with the HEART score. It excludes individuals presenting with traumatic pain etiologies or acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) requiring immediate, time-critical reperfusion pathways.

説明

INCLUSION CRITERIA:

  • Age >=18 years
  • Chief complaint of non-traumatic chest pain at the emergency department
  • Written informed consent obtained from the patient or legally authorized representative
  • Availability for 30-day follow-up (reachable by telephone and/or actively registered in the e-Nabiz national health database)

EXCLUSION CRITERIA:

  • Traumatic chest pain etiology
  • ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) at presentation requiring immediate reperfusion protocol
  • Refusal or subsequent withdrawal of informed consent
  • Inability to complete the mandatory 30-day follow-up period

WITHDRAWAL CRITERIA:

  • Patient or representative requests data withdrawal after initial consent
  • Administrative identification of retrospective data entry after enrollment

研究計画

このセクションでは、研究がどのように設計され、研究が何を測定しているかなど、研究計画の詳細を提供します。

研究はどのように設計されていますか?

デザインの詳細

この研究は何を測定していますか?

主要な結果の測定

結果測定
メジャーの説明
時間枠
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) of GPT-4o and Claude HEART Score for 30-Day MACE Prediction
時間枠:30 days after index emergency department visit
AUC calculated separately for GPT-4o and Claude using the Hanley-McNeil method. MACE is defined as a composite of all-cause death, acute myocardial infarction (Type 1/2/4b), and unplanned revascularization within 30 days. HEART score range is 0-10; a higher score indicates a higher risk of MACE. Analysis will be performed on complete cases only (0 indeterminate components).
30 days after index emergency department visit

二次結果の測定

結果測定
メジャーの説明
時間枠
Sensitivity and Specificity of GPT-4o and Claude HEART Score at Prespecified Thresholds
時間枠:30 days after index emergency department visit
Diagnostic sensitivity and specificity calculated at two threshold types: (a) total score >=4 (binary high-risk cutoff) and (b) trimodal cutoffs (0-3 low risk, 4-6 intermediate risk, 7-10 high risk). Metrics will be reported with 95% Wilson confidence intervals separately for each LLM.
30 days after index emergency department visit
Component-Level and Total-Score Agreement (Cohen's Kappa) Between LLMs and Expert Consensus
時間枠:Baseline (At index emergency department visit)
Inter-rater agreement will be computed using quadratic weighted Cohen's Kappa for the ordinal total HEART score (range 0-10) and linear weighted Kappa for the individual components (range 0-2). Calculated separately for GPT-4o vs. expert consensus and Claude vs. expert consensus. Values will be interpreted using the Landis & Koch scale (<0.20 poor, 0.21-0.40 fair, 0.41-0.60 moderate, 0.61-0.80 good, >0.80 excellent).
Baseline (At index emergency department visit)
Comparative AUC Difference Between GPT-4o and Claude (DeLong Test)
時間枠:30 days after index emergency department visit
Statistical comparison of paired ROC curves between GPT-4o and Claude using the DeLong et al. (1988) method. The formal hypothesis is non-inferiority with an expected delta AUC <= 0.05. The correlation coefficient between the paired LLM measurements is estimated as rho >= 0.70.
30 days after index emergency department visit
Proportion of Indeterminate Results for GPT-4o and Claude
時間枠:Baseline (At index emergency department visit)
The proportion of cases classified into predefined missing data tiers: Complete (0 indeterminate components), Partial indeterminate (exactly 1 missing component preventing definitive score calculation), and Full indeterminate (>=2 missing components). Reported separately for each LLM and statistically compared between the two models.
Baseline (At index emergency department visit)
HEART Parameter Documentation Rate in Routine Turkish Anamnesis Notes
時間枠:Baseline (At index emergency department visit)
For each of the 5 individual HEART components, the proportion of emergency department free-text anamnesis notes that spontaneously contain sufficient objective clinical information for scoring. Rates will be categorized as: Present and scorable, Partiall
Baseline (At index emergency department visit)
Subgroup AUC by Age Group and Sex (Algorithmic Bias Assessment)
時間枠:30 days after the index emergency department visit
AUC values for 30-day MACE prediction were calculated separately across demographic strata: age groups (<45, 45-64, >=65 years) and biological sex (male vs. female). This analysis serves as the formal algorithmic bias assessment required by the STARD-AI 2025 guidelines.
30 days after the index emergency department visit

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一般刊行物

研究記録日

これらの日付は、ClinicalTrials.gov への研究記録と要約結果の提出の進捗状況を追跡します。研究記録と報告された結果は、国立医学図書館 (NLM) によって審査され、公開 Web サイトに掲載される前に、特定の品質管理基準を満たしていることが確認されます。

主要日程の研究

研究開始 (推定)

2026年6月1日

一次修了 (推定)

2027年3月1日

研究の完了 (推定)

2027年6月1日

試験登録日

最初に提出

2026年5月27日

QC基準を満たした最初の提出物

2026年6月3日

最初の投稿 (実際)

2026年6月4日

学習記録の更新

投稿された最後の更新 (実際)

2026年6月23日

QC基準を満たした最後の更新が送信されました

2026年6月22日

最終確認日

2026年6月1日

詳しくは

本研究に関する用語

個々の参加者データ (IPD) の計画

個々の参加者データ (IPD) を共有する予定はありますか?

はい

IPD プランの説明

Anonymized individual participant data (including de-identified baseline demographics, clinical presentation characteristics, index test outputs from GPT-4o and Claude, and the reference standard expert consensus HEART scores) will be made publicly available to support academic transparency and replication. Additionally, the complete deterministic system prompt texts (verified with SHA-256 cryptographic hashes) and the complete statistical analysis code will be included as supplementary material.

IPD 共有時間枠

The anonymized dataset, protocol documents, and analytic code will be made available immediately upon formal publication of the study results.

IPD 共有アクセス基準

Data and code will be accessible via an open-access repository on the Open Science Framework (OSF) for researchers and clinicians interested in replication or meta-analysis.

IPD 共有サポート情報タイプ

  • STUDY_PROTOCOL
  • SAP
  • ANALYTIC_CODE

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