Promoting Interventions for Climate Change to Upscale Resilience in District Badin (PICCTURE)

District Badin, located in the lower Indus delta of Pakistan, is highly exposed to recurrent climate-related hazards, including riverine and coastal flooding, cyclones, saline water intrusion, and increasing temperatures. These hazards interact with underlying structural vulnerabilities such as low-lying topography, reliance on agriculture and fisheries, and constrained access to health and social services-resulting in compounded risks to health, nutrition, and livelihoods. This context provides a suitable setting to evaluate integrated, community-based strategies aimed at strengthening resilience to climate-related shocks.

This study is guided by a multidimensional resilience framework that conceptualizes resilience as a function of coping, adaptive, and transformative capacities across social, economic, environmental, and health domains. The intervention package is informed by prior vulnerability assessments and designed to address key modifiable determinants of resilience, including disaster preparedness, livelihood security, financial risk management, and access to essential health services.

The intervention is delivered through two implementation models that differ in the degree of health system integration. The first model utilizes community-led platforms established through Village Management Committees (VMCs), which are locally constituted groups representing diverse segments of the community. These committees facilitate participatory learning and action processes, enabling communities to identify risks, prioritize solutions, and implement locally appropriate adaptation strategies. Core components include structured training on disaster risk reduction, development of community hazard maps and early warning mechanisms, promotion of climate-resilient livelihood options, and strengthening of household-level financial planning and emergency preparedness.

The second model builds on the community platform by incorporating structured engagement with Lady Health Workers (LHWs) and primary healthcare providers. This integrated approach is intended to strengthen linkages between communities and the formal health system, enhance delivery of climate-sensitive health messaging, improve identification and support of high-risk households, and facilitate continuity of care during climate-related events. Health system engagement also includes co-facilitation of selected community sessions, alignment of community preparedness plans with facility-level response mechanisms, and promotion of climate-responsive service delivery practices.

Intervention activities are implemented over a 12-month period using a standardized curriculum adapted to the local context. Delivery follows a phased approach, with more intensive engagement during the initial months followed by reinforcement sessions. Participatory group sessions, simulation exercises, and community mobilization activities are used to enhance knowledge, build skills, and support behavior change. Implementation fidelity is supported through structured training of facilitators, supervision, routine monitoring, and the use of standardized tools and materials.

Evaluation is conducted using repeated cross-sectional household surveys administered at baseline and endline to assess changes in resilience and vulnerability across multiple domains. Data collection includes measures of household preparedness, livelihood strategies, financial coping mechanisms, health-seeking behavior, and selected health and nutrition indicators. Process evaluation is embedded within the study to assess intervention delivery, including coverage, participation, adherence to planned activities, and functionality of community-level preparedness mechanisms such as emergency plans and early warning systems. These measures enable assessment of both implementation fidelity and intermediate pathways of impact.

To capture the effectiveness of interventions under real-world stress conditions, a rapid assessment component is incorporated. In the event of a major climate-related hazard affecting study areas during the implementation period, targeted data collection will be conducted shortly after the event to document community responses, functioning of preparedness systems, and access to essential services. This component is intended to complement routine evaluation by providing insight into intervention performance during actual shocks.

The analytical approach follows an intention-to-treat framework, whereby all households are analyzed according to their assigned study group regardless of level of participation. Intervention effects will be estimated using mixed-effects regression models to account for clustering at the community level and potential intra-cluster correlation. A difference-in-differences specification will be applied to compare changes over time between study groups, enabling estimation of intervention effects while controlling for baseline differences and secular trends. Models will incorporate fixed effects for time and study group, as well as interaction terms to estimate differential changes attributable to the intervention. Relevant household- and cluster-level covariates will be included to improve precision and adjust for residual confounding.

Sensitivity analyses will be conducted to assess the robustness of findings to model specification and potential sources of bias, including differential attrition and variation in intervention exposure. Process indicators will be analyzed descriptively and, where appropriate, linked to outcome measures to explore potential mechanisms of effect.

This study is designed to generate rigorous evidence on the effectiveness of integrated community-based and health system-linked approaches to strengthening climate resilience in vulnerable populations. Findings are expected to inform the design and scale-up of adaptation strategies in similar climate-affected, resource-constrained settings.