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Frailty and Intraoperative Hypoxemia Risk in Elderly ERCP Patients

1 maja 2026 zaktualizowane przez: Li Fang Wang, China-Japan Friendship Hospital

The Predictive Value of Frailty for Intraoperative Hypoxemia in Elderly Patients Undergoing ERCP: A Two-Directional Cohort Study and Predictive Model Construction

Intraoperative hypoxemia is a common and serious complication during monitored anesthesia care for elective endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), especially in older adults. Frail patients have reduced physiologic reserve and are at increased risk of life-threatening events including unplanned intubation, hemodynamic collapse, and hypoxic brain injury. However, the independent relationship between frailty and intraoperative hypoxemia during sedated ERCP remains poorly defined, and no validated risk prediction model exists for this high-risk population. This single-center, dual-cohort study will be conducted at China-Japan Friendship Hospital to evaluate whether preoperative frailty can predict intraoperative hypoxemia in patients aged 65 years and older undergoing elective ERCP. Frailty will be assessed primarily using the Frailty Index (FI), with secondary screening by the Modified Frailty Index-11 (mFI-11), Edmonton Frail Scale (EFS), Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), FRAIL scale, and Fried phenotype. The primary outcome is intraoperative hypoxemia, defined as SpO₂ < 90% for 5 seconds or longer. In the retrospective phase (n = 313), investigators will identify risk factors and develop a preliminary prediction model. In the prospective phase (n = 388), the model will be validated, refined, and internally tested for discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. This study aims to establish frailty as a reliable preoperative risk marker and provide a clinically practical prediction tool to support risk stratification, personalized sedation strategies, and perioperative safety in elderly patients undergoing ERCP.

Przegląd badań

Status

Jeszcze nie rekrutacja

Warunki

Szczegółowy opis

This dual-cohort study investigates the predictive value of preoperative frailty for intraoperative hypoxemia in patients aged 65 years and older undergoing elective endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) under monitored anesthesia care at China-Japan Friendship Hospital, with a total target enrollment of 701 patients (313 retrospective and 388 prospective). Intraoperative hypoxemia, defined as pulse oxygen saturation (SpO₂) < 90% for 5 seconds or longer from anesthesia induction to procedure completion, serves as the primary outcome, while secondary outcomes include severe hypoxemia, postoperative hypoxemia, time to oxygen discontinuation, hemodynamic instability, anesthesia- and procedure-related adverse events, respiratory depression, and apnea. Frailty will be assessed primarily using the Frailty Index (FI) as the core instrument, with additional secondary screening performed using the Modified Frailty Index-11 (mFI-11), Edmonton Frail Scale (EFS), Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), FRAIL questionnaire, and Fried frailty phenotype. Eligible patients are aged 65 years or older with ASA class II-IV status, scheduled for elective ERCP with a planned procedure duration of less than 60 minutes and complete intraoperative SpO₂ monitoring data; those requiring emergency surgery, severe anemia, pre-existing severe respiratory or hemodynamic instability, or impaired consciousness will be excluded. The retrospective phase will use existing electronic health records to identify risk factors and construct a preliminary prediction model, with propensity score matching, univariate and multivariable logistic regression, bootstrap internal validation, and random forest for feature importance ranking. The prospective phase will prospectively collect standardized data, validate the association between frailty and hypoxemia using adjusted logistic regression, refine the prediction model, compare the performance of different frailty scales using Delong's test, and evaluate machine learning models with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values for interpretability. The final model will be tested in an internal validation cohort for discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical utility. All statistical analyses will be performed using R and SPSS software at a two-sided significance level of α = 0.05, with multiple imputation for missing data and Holm-Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons.

Typ studiów

Obserwacyjny

Zapisy (Szacowany)

701

Kontakty i lokalizacje

Ta sekcja zawiera dane kontaktowe osób prowadzących badanie oraz informacje o tym, gdzie badanie jest przeprowadzane.

Kontakt w sprawie studiów

Kopia zapasowa kontaktu do badania

Kryteria uczestnictwa

Badacze szukają osób, które pasują do określonego opisu, zwanego kryteriami kwalifikacyjnymi. Niektóre przykłady tych kryteriów to ogólny stan zdrowia danej osoby lub wcześniejsze leczenie.

Kryteria kwalifikacji

Wiek uprawniający do nauki

  • Starszy dorosły

Akceptuje zdrowych ochotników

Nie

Metoda próbkowania

Próbka bez prawdopodobieństwa

Badana populacja

This observational cohort study will enroll elderly patients aged 65 years and older who are scheduled for elective endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) under anesthesia sedation at China-Japan Friendship Hospital. The study population consists of two sequential cohorts: a retrospective cohort of 313 patients with complete electronic health record data and a prospective cohort of 388 patients to be recruited prospectively. Eligible participants include those with American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status II-IV and an expected procedure duration of less than 60 minutes, with adequate intraoperative pulse oximetry monitoring.

Opis

Inclusion Criteria:

  1. Age 65 years or older
  2. Elective endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) under anesthesia sedation
  3. American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status II-IV
  4. Expected procedure duration less than 60 minutes
  5. Available and complete intraoperative pulse oximetry (SpO₂) monitoring data

Exclusion Criteria:

  1. Emergency ERCP
  2. Severe anemia (hemoglobin < 60 g/L) or conditions interfering with accurate 3. SpO₂ measurement

4. Pre-existing severe respiratory insufficiency requiring long-term oxygen therapy 5. Unstable hemodynamics requiring continuous vasopressor infusion Impaired consciousness, delirium, or cognitive dysfunction that prevents reliable frailty assessment

Plan studiów

Ta sekcja zawiera szczegółowe informacje na temat planu badania, w tym sposób zaprojektowania badania i jego pomiary.

Jak projektuje się badanie?

Szczegóły projektu

Kohorty i interwencje

Grupa / Kohorta
Frailty-Hypoxemia ERCP Cohort
This study employs a dual-cohort design consisting of a retrospective cohort and a prospective cohort. The retrospective cohort includes 313 patients aged 65 years and older who underwent elective ERCP under anesthesia sedation with complete electronic health record data. The prospective cohort will enroll 388 consecutive eligible patients aged 65 years and older undergoing elective ERCP under anesthesia sedation, with prospective frailty assessment and standardized perioperative data collection. This cohort will be used to validate the independent association between frailty and hypoxemia, refine the prediction model, and assess its performance in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Frailty will be assessed primarily using the Frailty Index (FI), with supplementary screening using other validated scales. All patients will be managed according to routine clinical practice without additional investigation.

Co mierzy badanie?

Podstawowe miary wyniku

Miara wyniku
Opis środka
Ramy czasowe
Intraoperative hypoxemia
Ramy czasowe: Intraoperatively
Intraoperative hypoxemia defined as pulse oxygen saturation (SpO₂) < 90% lasting 5 seconds or longer during the procedure.
Intraoperatively

Miary wyników drugorzędnych

Miara wyniku
Opis środka
Ramy czasowe
Severe intraoperative hypoxemia
Ramy czasowe: Intraoperatively
Severe hypoxemia defined as SpO₂ < 90% for more than 1 minute, or SpO₂ < 75%.
Intraoperatively
Postoperative hypoxemia
Ramy czasowe: Within 2 hours after completion of ERCP
Hypoxemia on admission to the ward, defined as SpO₂ < 90% on room air.
Within 2 hours after completion of ERCP
Intraoperative hemodynamic instability
Ramy czasowe: Intraoperatively
Clinically significant hypotension, hypertension, or arrhythmia requiring intervention.
Intraoperatively
Serious anesthesia-related adverse events
Ramy czasowe: up to 1 month
Aspiration, circulatory instability, unplanned endotracheal intubation, hypoxic encephalopathy, or death.
up to 1 month
Serious procedure-related adverse events
Ramy czasowe: up to 1 month
Post-ERCP pancreatitis, bleeding, perforation, or cholangitis.
up to 1 month
Intraoperative respiratory depression and apnea
Ramy czasowe: Intraoperatively
Respiratory rate < 8 breaths per minute or apnea (respiratory pause ≥ 15 seconds).
Intraoperatively

Współpracownicy i badacze

Tutaj znajdziesz osoby i organizacje zaangażowane w to badanie.

Sponsor

China-Japan Friendship Hospital

Śledczy

  • Główny śledczy: Lifang Wang, M.D., China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Department of Anesthesiology

Daty zapisu na studia

Daty te śledzą postęp w przesyłaniu rekordów badań i podsumowań wyników do ClinicalTrials.gov. Zapisy badań i zgłoszone wyniki są przeglądane przez National Library of Medicine (NLM), aby upewnić się, że spełniają określone standardy kontroli jakości, zanim zostaną opublikowane na publicznej stronie internetowej.

Główne daty studiów

Rozpoczęcie studiów (Szacowany)

1 czerwca 2026

Zakończenie podstawowe (Szacowany)

30 czerwca 2026

Ukończenie studiów (Szacowany)

31 grudnia 2028

Daty rejestracji na studia

Pierwszy przesłany

23 kwietnia 2026

Pierwszy przesłany, który spełnia kryteria kontroli jakości

1 maja 2026

Pierwszy wysłany (Rzeczywisty)

6 maja 2026

Aktualizacje rekordów badań

Ostatnia wysłana aktualizacja (Rzeczywisty)

6 maja 2026

Ostatnia przesłana aktualizacja, która spełniała kryteria kontroli jakości

1 maja 2026

Ostatnia weryfikacja

1 maja 2026

Więcej informacji

Terminy związane z tym badaniem

Dodatkowe istotne warunki MeSH

Inne numery identyfikacyjne badania

  • ZRYH-Hypoxemia-Frailty-2026

Plan dla danych uczestnika indywidualnego (IPD)

Planujesz udostępniać dane poszczególnych uczestników (IPD)?

TAK

Opis planu IPD

Individual participant data (IPD) will be shared with qualified researchers upon reasonable request, following publication of the study results. Shared data will include de-identified clinical information (baseline characteristics, intraoperative parameters, postoperative outcomes) and biomarker data, excluding direct identifiers to protect participant privacy. Data access will require approval from the institutional review board of China-Japan Friendship Hospital and a signed data use agreement specifying the purpose of use and confidentiality obligations. The data will be shared via a secure research data repository for up to 5 years after study completion

Ramy czasowe udostępniania IPD

Individual participant data (IPD) and supporting information will be made available within 1 month after the publication of study results, with access maintained for 5 years after study completion.

Kryteria dostępu do udostępniania IPD

Eligible researchers must submit a research application specifying the purpose of data use and research plan, which will be reviewed and approved by the Institutional Review Board of China-Japan Friendship Hospital.A data use agreement must be signed, committing to use the data solely for scientific research, protect participants' privacy, refrain from unauthorized data transfer, and cite this study in published outcomes.De-identified data will be accessible through the hospital's designated secure data repository.

Typ informacji pomocniczych dotyczących udostępniania IPD

  • PROTOKÓŁ BADANIA
  • SOK ROŚLINNY

Informacje o lekach i urządzeniach, dokumenty badawcze

Bada produkt leczniczy regulowany przez amerykańską FDA

Nie

Bada produkt urządzenia regulowany przez amerykańską FDA

Nie

Te informacje zostały pobrane bezpośrednio ze strony internetowej clinicaltrials.gov bez żadnych zmian. Jeśli chcesz zmienić, usunąć lub zaktualizować dane swojego badania, skontaktuj się z register@clinicaltrials.gov. Gdy tylko zmiana zostanie wprowadzona na stronie clinicaltrials.gov, zostanie ona automatycznie zaktualizowana również na naszej stronie internetowej .

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