The Psychological Effects of Miscarriage Prediction Score: A Prospective Study (PEMPS)

The PEMPS study is a prospective, randomised controlled investigation designed to evaluate the psychological impact of providing individualised miscarriage risk estimates to patients in early pregnancy. The study population comprises individuals attending an Early Pregnancy Unit (EPU) with a confirmed single ongoing intrauterine pregnancy under 12 weeks' gestation. Participants will be randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio to either receive their personalised miscarriage risk score (intervention group) or to receive standard care without disclosure of such a score (control group).

Randomisation will be implemented using a computer-generated allocation sequence with appropriate allocation concealment to minimize selection bias. The personalised miscarriage risk score will be derived using a validated predictive model incorporating relevant clinical and ultrasound parameters routinely collected during EPU assessment. The methodology underlying the risk calculation will remain consistent across participants to ensure comparability and reproducibility.

Participants in the intervention arm will be provided with their individualised risk estimate in a standardised format, accompanied by a brief explanation to support interpretation. Care will be taken to ensure that the communication approach is clear, non-directive, and does not include additional counselling beyond standard clinical practice. Participants in the control arm will receive routine clinical information and follow-up as per standard EPU protocols, without access to the calculated risk score.

The primary objective of the study is to determine whether disclosure of a personalised miscarriage risk score influences patient-reported anxiety levels in early pregnancy, assessed using a validated questionnaires on Day 0 and Day 7. The secondary objective is patient acceptability of the study using qualitative feedback on Day 7.