Diese Seite wurde automatisch übersetzt und die Genauigkeit der Übersetzung wird nicht garantiert. Bitte wende dich an die englische Version für einen Quelltext.

SPINE-RISK VE: Multimodal Predictive Model for Failed Back Surgery Syndrome in Venezuelan Surgical Patients (SPINE-RISK VE)

8. Juli 2026 aktualisiert von: juan jose valero quintero,MD

SPINE-RISK VE: Development and Internal Validation of a Multimodal Preoperative Predictive Model for Failed Back Surgery Syndrome Using Inflammatory Biomarkers, Lumbar MRI Findings, and Psychosocial Factors in Venezuelan Surgical Patients

SPINE-RISK VE is a prospective multicenter cohort study designed to develop and internally validate a multimodal preoperative predictive model for Failed Back Surgery Syndrome (FBSS), now classified as Persistent Spinal Pain Syndrome Type 2 (PSPS-T2) per ICD-11 (code MG30.51), in Venezuelan adults patients undergoing elective lumbar spine surgery.

The model integrates three variable domains obtainable from routine preoperative evaluation at zero additional cost to the patient: (1) inflammatory laboratory biomarkers (C-reactive protein [CRP], neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR], albumin, glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c], erythrocyte sedimentation rate [ESR]); (2) preoperative lumbar magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings (Modic changes, Pfirrmann disc degeneration grade, foraminal stenosis, number of surgical levels, spondylolisthesis); and (3) validated psychosocial instruments (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 [PHQ-9], Pain Catastrophizing Scale [PCS], smoking status, benzodiazepine use, prior lumbar surgery).

Analysis proceeds in two phases: Phase 1 applies multivariable logistic regression with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) variable selection to generate a printable clinical nomogram; Phase 2 applies a random forest machine learning algorithm with 10-fold cross-validation. Model reporting follows Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis plus Artificial Intelligence (TRIPOD+AI) guidelines.

SPINE-RISK VE aims to produce the first validated multimodal predictive model for PSPS-T2/FBSS was developed in a Latin American surgical cohort, providing neurosurgeons with an evidence-based preoperative risk stratification tool applicable without Additional technological infrastructure.

Studienübersicht

Status

Noch keine Rekrutierung

Bedingungen

Intervention / Behandlung

Detaillierte Beschreibung

Failed Back Surgery Syndrome (FBSS), formally reclassified as Persistent Spinal Pain Syndrome Type 2 (PSPS-T2) in ICD-11 (code MG30.51), affects 10-40% of patients undergoing lumbar spine surgery and constitutes one of the most complex therapeutic challenges in contemporary neurosurgery. Despite the identification of individual risk factors in the literature, no validated multimodal predictive model integrating laboratory biomarkers, lumbar magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) morphology, and psychosocial variables exist for Latin American surgical populations.

The best available predictive model to date achieved Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.715 for decompression and 0.701 for fusion using only electronic health record variables, without laboratory biomarkers or MRI-derived predictors, and without validation in any Latin American cohort. SPINE-RISK VE addresses this gap through a prospective multicenter cohort design enrolling 100-150 adults with Elective lumbar surgery indication at three Venezuelan referral centers.

PREDICTOR DOMAINS:

Domain 1 - Inflammatory biomarkers:

C-reactive protein (CRP greater than 3 mg/L), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR greater than 3.0), serum albumin (less than 3.5 g/dL), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c greater than 7%), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). All obtainable from standard preoperative Laboratory panels.

Domain 2 - Lumbar MRI findings: Modic changes (Types I-III), disc degeneration grade (Pfirrmann scale I-V), foraminal stenosis, number of surgical levels, and Spondylolisthesis grade (Meyerding I-IV). All from already-requested preoperative imaging.

Domain 3 - Psychosocial factors: depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 [PHQ-9] cutoff of 10 or greater), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale [PCS] cutoff of 30 or greater, active smoking, preoperative benzodiazepine use, and prior lumbar surgery history.

PRIMARY OUTCOME: PSPS-T2/FBSS incidence at 12 months, defined as the Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) of 4 or greater AND Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) of 40% or greater at postoperative follow-up, consistent with International Association for the Study of Pain (IASP) criteria.

ANALYTICAL PLAN:

Phase 1: Multivariable logistic regression with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regularization to identify independent predictors and generate a Printable clinical nomogram. Software: R Version 4.x (glmnet, rms packages).

Phase 2: Random forest (500 trees, 10-fold cross-validation) compared against Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and logistic regression. Performance metrics: AUC-ROC (target 0.80 or greater), sensitivity, specificity, calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Brier score). Model interpretability via SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values.

REPORTING: Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for an individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis plus Artificial Intelligence (TRIPOD+AI) 2024 and Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) guidelines.

EXPECTED OUTPUTS: (1) Printable preoperative nomogram applicable without additional technological infrastructure; (2) exportable machine learning (ML) model with AUC target of 0.80 or greater; (3) first structured lumbar surgery database with 12-month Follow-up generated in Venezuela.

Studientyp

Beobachtungs

Einschreibung (Geschätzt)

150

Kontakte und Standorte

Dieser Abschnitt enthält die Kontaktdaten derjenigen, die die Studie durchführen, und Informationen darüber, wo diese Studie durchgeführt wird.

Studienkontakt

Studieren Sie die Kontaktsicherung

Studienorte

  • Venezuela
    • Distrito Capitañ
      • Caracas, Distrito Capitañ, Venezuela, 1050
        • Hopsital Universitario de Caracas
        • Kontakt:
        • Kontakt:
        • Hauptermittler:
          • juan j valero, Medical Doctor
        • Unterermittler:
          • Fredy Contreras, PHD
        • Unterermittler:
          • Hector r Aceituno, Medical doctor
        • Unterermittler:
          • Edicson j cardenas, Nursing

Teilnahmekriterien

Forscher suchen nach Personen, die einer bestimmten Beschreibung entsprechen, die als Auswahlkriterien bezeichnet werden. Einige Beispiele für diese Kriterien sind der allgemeine Gesundheitszustand einer Person oder frühere Behandlungen.

Zulassungskriterien

Studienberechtigtes Alter

  • Erwachsene
  • Älterer Erwachsener

Akzeptiert gesunde Freiwillige

Nein

Probenahmeverfahren

Nicht-Wahrscheinlichkeitsprobe

Studienpopulation

Adult patients with degenerative lumbar spine disease undergoing elective lumbar surgery (discectomy, spinal fusion, or decompression) at three Venezuelan referral centers: Hospital Universitario de Caracas and two regional Neurosurgical referral centers in Venezuela. Consecutive recruitment during the study period. This population represents a low-middle income country (LMIC) Latin American surgical cohort not previously represented in published predictive models for PSPS-T2/FBSS

Beschreibung

Inclusion Criteria:- Age 18 years or older

  • Confirmed indication for elective lumbar spine surgery (discectomy, spinal fusion, or decompression) for degenerative lumbar disease
  • Availability of preoperative lumbar MRI (with and without gadolinium contrast) within 6 months before surgery
  • Availability of standard preoperative laboratory panel (CRP, CBC with differential, albumin, HbA1c, ESR) within 30 days before surgery
  • Ability to complete validated psychosocial instruments (PHQ-9, PCS) in Spanish
  • Provision of written informed consent prior to any study procedure
  • Attending one of the three participating Venezuelan referral centers during the recruitment period

Exclusion Criteria:- Emergency lumbar spine surgery

  • Active spinal infection or spinal tumor requiring oncological surgery
  • Traumatic spinal fracture as primary indication
  • Cognitive impairment preventing completion of self-report psychosocial instruments
  • Active psychiatric emergency at time of preoperative assessment
  • Prior participation in another clinical trial that could influence surgical or pain outcomes
  • Inability to complete 12-month postoperative follow-up (geographic inaccessibility, planned relocation, or terminal illness)
  • Age under 18 years

Studienplan

Dieser Abschnitt enthält Einzelheiten zum Studienplan, einschließlich des Studiendesigns und der Messung der Studieninhalte.

Wie ist die Studie aufgebaut?

Designdetails

Kohorten und Interventionen

Gruppe / Kohorte
Intervention / Behandlung
Lumbar surgery candidates
Adult patients (18 years or older) with an indication for elective lumbar spine surgery (discectomy, spinal fusion, or decompression) for degenerative lumbar disease at three Venezuelan referrals centers. All participants undergo standardized preoperative assessment, including inflammatory laboratory biomarkers, lumbar MRI morphological evaluation, and validated psychosocial instruments (PHQ-9, PCS). The primary outcome assessed at 12-month postoperative follow-up.
Sonstiges: SPINE-RISK VE multimodal preoperative assessment
Adult patients (18 years or older) with an indication for elective lumbar spine surgery (discectomy, spinal fusion, or decompression) for degenerative lumbar disease at three Venezuelan referral centers. All participants undergo standardized preoperative assessment, including inflammatory laboratory biomarkers, lumbar MRI morphological evaluation, and validated psychosocial instruments (PHQ-9, PCS). Primary outcome assessed at 12-month postoperative follow-up

Was misst die Studie?

Primäre Ergebnismessungen

Ergebnis Maßnahme
Maßnahmenbeschreibung
Zeitfenster
Predictive accuracy of SPINE-RISK VE model for PSPS-T2/FBSS at 12 months
Zeitfenster: 12 months post-lumbar surgery
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) of the multimodal predictive model (Phase 1: LASSO logistic regression nomogram; Phase 2: random forest algorithm) for identifying patients who develop Persistent Spinal Pain Syndrome Type 2 (PSPS-T2/FBSS) at 12 months post-lumbar surgery, defined as NRS >=4 AND ODI >=40% at postoperative follow-up assessment. Target AUC >=0.80 per Riley et al. (Stat Med 2020) Minimum criteria for clinical prediction models.
12 months post-lumbar surgery

Mitarbeiter und Ermittler

Hier finden Sie Personen und Organisationen, die an dieser Studie beteiligt sind.

Sponsor

juan jose valero quintero,MD

Ermittler

  • Hauptermittler: juan j valero, Medical Doctor, Universidad Central de Venezuela

Publikationen und hilfreiche Links

Die Bereitstellung dieser Publikationen erfolgt freiwillig durch die für die Eingabe von Informationen über die Studie verantwortliche Person. Diese können sich auf alles beziehen, was mit dem Studium zu tun hat.

Allgemeine Veröffentlichungen

Studienaufzeichnungsdaten

Diese Daten verfolgen den Fortschritt der Übermittlung von Studienaufzeichnungen und zusammenfassenden Ergebnissen an ClinicalTrials.gov. Studienaufzeichnungen und gemeldete Ergebnisse werden von der National Library of Medicine (NLM) überprüft, um sicherzustellen, dass sie bestimmten Qualitätskontrollstandards entsprechen, bevor sie auf der öffentlichen Website veröffentlicht werden.

Haupttermine studieren

Studienbeginn (Geschätzt)

4. September 2026

Primärer Abschluss (Geschätzt)

4. November 2027

Studienabschluss (Geschätzt)

10. Februar 2028

Studienanmeldedaten

Zuerst eingereicht

3. Juli 2026

Zuerst eingereicht, das die QC-Kriterien erfüllt hat

3. Juli 2026

Zuerst gepostet (Tatsächlich)

9. Juli 2026

Studienaufzeichnungsaktualisierungen

Letztes Update gepostet (Tatsächlich)

10. Juli 2026

Letztes eingereichtes Update, das die QC-Kriterien erfüllt

8. Juli 2026

Zuletzt verifiziert

1. Juli 2026

Mehr Informationen

Begriffe im Zusammenhang mit dieser Studie

Schlüsselwörter

Zusätzliche relevante MeSH-Bedingungen

Andere Studien-ID-Nummern

  • SPINE-RISK-VE-2026-001

Plan für individuelle Teilnehmerdaten (IPD)

Planen Sie, individuelle Teilnehmerdaten (IPD) zu teilen?

NEIN

Beschreibung des IPD-Plans

Individual participant data (IPD) will not be shared. This study collects sensitive clinical and psychosocial data from Venezuelan patients In a low-resource setting. The research team does not have access to formal data repository infrastructure for anonymized IPD sharing that meets international data protection standards. Aggregate study results and the derived predictive model (nomogram and machine learning algorithm) will be made publicly available through peer-reviewed publication In an indexed journal.

Arzneimittel- und Geräteinformationen, Studienunterlagen

Studiert ein von der US-amerikanischen FDA reguliertes Arzneimittelprodukt

Nein

Studiert ein von der US-amerikanischen FDA reguliertes Geräteprodukt

Nein

Diese Informationen wurden ohne Änderungen direkt von der Website clinicaltrials.gov abgerufen. Wenn Sie Ihre Studiendaten ändern, entfernen oder aktualisieren möchten, wenden Sie sich bitte an register@clinicaltrials.gov. Sobald eine Änderung auf clinicaltrials.gov implementiert wird, wird diese automatisch auch auf unserer Website aktualisiert .

Abonnieren