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SPINE-RISK VE: Multimodal Predictive Model for Failed Back Surgery Syndrome in Venezuelan Surgical Patients (SPINE-RISK VE)

8 juli 2026 bijgewerkt door: juan jose valero quintero,MD

SPINE-RISK VE: Development and Internal Validation of a Multimodal Preoperative Predictive Model for Failed Back Surgery Syndrome Using Inflammatory Biomarkers, Lumbar MRI Findings, and Psychosocial Factors in Venezuelan Surgical Patients

SPINE-RISK VE is a prospective multicenter cohort study designed to develop and internally validate a multimodal preoperative predictive model for Failed Back Surgery Syndrome (FBSS), now classified as Persistent Spinal Pain Syndrome Type 2 (PSPS-T2) per ICD-11 (code MG30.51), in Venezuelan adults patients undergoing elective lumbar spine surgery.

The model integrates three variable domains obtainable from routine preoperative evaluation at zero additional cost to the patient: (1) inflammatory laboratory biomarkers (C-reactive protein [CRP], neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR], albumin, glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c], erythrocyte sedimentation rate [ESR]); (2) preoperative lumbar magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings (Modic changes, Pfirrmann disc degeneration grade, foraminal stenosis, number of surgical levels, spondylolisthesis); and (3) validated psychosocial instruments (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 [PHQ-9], Pain Catastrophizing Scale [PCS], smoking status, benzodiazepine use, prior lumbar surgery).

Analysis proceeds in two phases: Phase 1 applies multivariable logistic regression with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) variable selection to generate a printable clinical nomogram; Phase 2 applies a random forest machine learning algorithm with 10-fold cross-validation. Model reporting follows Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis plus Artificial Intelligence (TRIPOD+AI) guidelines.

SPINE-RISK VE aims to produce the first validated multimodal predictive model for PSPS-T2/FBSS was developed in a Latin American surgical cohort, providing neurosurgeons with an evidence-based preoperative risk stratification tool applicable without Additional technological infrastructure.

Studie Overzicht

Toestand

Nog niet aan het werven

Conditie

Interventie / Behandeling

Gedetailleerde beschrijving

Failed Back Surgery Syndrome (FBSS), formally reclassified as Persistent Spinal Pain Syndrome Type 2 (PSPS-T2) in ICD-11 (code MG30.51), affects 10-40% of patients undergoing lumbar spine surgery and constitutes one of the most complex therapeutic challenges in contemporary neurosurgery. Despite the identification of individual risk factors in the literature, no validated multimodal predictive model integrating laboratory biomarkers, lumbar magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) morphology, and psychosocial variables exist for Latin American surgical populations.

The best available predictive model to date achieved Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.715 for decompression and 0.701 for fusion using only electronic health record variables, without laboratory biomarkers or MRI-derived predictors, and without validation in any Latin American cohort. SPINE-RISK VE addresses this gap through a prospective multicenter cohort design enrolling 100-150 adults with Elective lumbar surgery indication at three Venezuelan referral centers.

PREDICTOR DOMAINS:

Domain 1 - Inflammatory biomarkers:

C-reactive protein (CRP greater than 3 mg/L), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR greater than 3.0), serum albumin (less than 3.5 g/dL), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c greater than 7%), and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). All obtainable from standard preoperative Laboratory panels.

Domain 2 - Lumbar MRI findings: Modic changes (Types I-III), disc degeneration grade (Pfirrmann scale I-V), foraminal stenosis, number of surgical levels, and Spondylolisthesis grade (Meyerding I-IV). All from already-requested preoperative imaging.

Domain 3 - Psychosocial factors: depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 [PHQ-9] cutoff of 10 or greater), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale [PCS] cutoff of 30 or greater, active smoking, preoperative benzodiazepine use, and prior lumbar surgery history.

PRIMARY OUTCOME: PSPS-T2/FBSS incidence at 12 months, defined as the Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) of 4 or greater AND Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) of 40% or greater at postoperative follow-up, consistent with International Association for the Study of Pain (IASP) criteria.

ANALYTICAL PLAN:

Phase 1: Multivariable logistic regression with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regularization to identify independent predictors and generate a Printable clinical nomogram. Software: R Version 4.x (glmnet, rms packages).

Phase 2: Random forest (500 trees, 10-fold cross-validation) compared against Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and logistic regression. Performance metrics: AUC-ROC (target 0.80 or greater), sensitivity, specificity, calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Brier score). Model interpretability via SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values.

REPORTING: Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for an individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis plus Artificial Intelligence (TRIPOD+AI) 2024 and Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) guidelines.

EXPECTED OUTPUTS: (1) Printable preoperative nomogram applicable without additional technological infrastructure; (2) exportable machine learning (ML) model with AUC target of 0.80 or greater; (3) first structured lumbar surgery database with 12-month Follow-up generated in Venezuela.

Studietype

Observationeel

Inschrijving (Geschat)

150

Contacten en locaties

In dit gedeelte vindt u de contactgegevens van degenen die het onderzoek uitvoeren en informatie over waar dit onderzoek wordt uitgevoerd.

Studiecontact

Studie Contact Back-up

Studie Locaties

  • Venezuela
    • Distrito Capitañ
      • Caracas, Distrito Capitañ, Venezuela, 1050
        • Hopsital Universitario de Caracas
        • Contact:
        • Contact:
        • Hoofdonderzoeker:
          • juan j valero, Medical Doctor
        • Onderonderzoeker:
          • Fredy Contreras, PHD
        • Onderonderzoeker:
          • Hector r Aceituno, Medical doctor
        • Onderonderzoeker:
          • Edicson j cardenas, Nursing

Deelname Criteria

Onderzoekers zoeken naar mensen die aan een bepaalde beschrijving voldoen, de zogenaamde geschiktheidscriteria. Enkele voorbeelden van deze criteria zijn iemands algemene gezondheidstoestand of eerdere behandelingen.

Geschiktheidscriteria

Leeftijden die in aanmerking komen voor studie

  • Volwassen
  • Oudere volwassene

Accepteert gezonde vrijwilligers

Nee

Bemonsteringsmethode

Niet-waarschijnlijkheidssteekproef

Studie Bevolking

Adult patients with degenerative lumbar spine disease undergoing elective lumbar surgery (discectomy, spinal fusion, or decompression) at three Venezuelan referral centers: Hospital Universitario de Caracas and two regional Neurosurgical referral centers in Venezuela. Consecutive recruitment during the study period. This population represents a low-middle income country (LMIC) Latin American surgical cohort not previously represented in published predictive models for PSPS-T2/FBSS

Beschrijving

Inclusion Criteria:- Age 18 years or older

  • Confirmed indication for elective lumbar spine surgery (discectomy, spinal fusion, or decompression) for degenerative lumbar disease
  • Availability of preoperative lumbar MRI (with and without gadolinium contrast) within 6 months before surgery
  • Availability of standard preoperative laboratory panel (CRP, CBC with differential, albumin, HbA1c, ESR) within 30 days before surgery
  • Ability to complete validated psychosocial instruments (PHQ-9, PCS) in Spanish
  • Provision of written informed consent prior to any study procedure
  • Attending one of the three participating Venezuelan referral centers during the recruitment period

Exclusion Criteria:- Emergency lumbar spine surgery

  • Active spinal infection or spinal tumor requiring oncological surgery
  • Traumatic spinal fracture as primary indication
  • Cognitive impairment preventing completion of self-report psychosocial instruments
  • Active psychiatric emergency at time of preoperative assessment
  • Prior participation in another clinical trial that could influence surgical or pain outcomes
  • Inability to complete 12-month postoperative follow-up (geographic inaccessibility, planned relocation, or terminal illness)
  • Age under 18 years

Studie plan

Dit gedeelte bevat details van het studieplan, inclusief hoe de studie is opgezet en wat de studie meet.

Hoe is de studie opgezet?

Ontwerpdetails

Cohorten en interventies

Groep / Cohort
Interventie / Behandeling
Lumbar surgery candidates
Adult patients (18 years or older) with an indication for elective lumbar spine surgery (discectomy, spinal fusion, or decompression) for degenerative lumbar disease at three Venezuelan referrals centers. All participants undergo standardized preoperative assessment, including inflammatory laboratory biomarkers, lumbar MRI morphological evaluation, and validated psychosocial instruments (PHQ-9, PCS). The primary outcome assessed at 12-month postoperative follow-up.
Ander: SPINE-RISK VE multimodal preoperative assessment
Adult patients (18 years or older) with an indication for elective lumbar spine surgery (discectomy, spinal fusion, or decompression) for degenerative lumbar disease at three Venezuelan referral centers. All participants undergo standardized preoperative assessment, including inflammatory laboratory biomarkers, lumbar MRI morphological evaluation, and validated psychosocial instruments (PHQ-9, PCS). Primary outcome assessed at 12-month postoperative follow-up

Wat meet het onderzoek?

Primaire uitkomstmaten

Uitkomstmaat
Maatregel Beschrijving
Tijdsspanne
Predictive accuracy of SPINE-RISK VE model for PSPS-T2/FBSS at 12 months
Tijdsspanne: 12 months post-lumbar surgery
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) of the multimodal predictive model (Phase 1: LASSO logistic regression nomogram; Phase 2: random forest algorithm) for identifying patients who develop Persistent Spinal Pain Syndrome Type 2 (PSPS-T2/FBSS) at 12 months post-lumbar surgery, defined as NRS >=4 AND ODI >=40% at postoperative follow-up assessment. Target AUC >=0.80 per Riley et al. (Stat Med 2020) Minimum criteria for clinical prediction models.
12 months post-lumbar surgery

Medewerkers en onderzoekers

Hier vindt u mensen en organisaties die betrokken zijn bij dit onderzoek.

Sponsor

juan jose valero quintero,MD

Onderzoekers

  • Hoofdonderzoeker: juan j valero, Medical Doctor, Universidad Central de Venezuela

Publicaties en nuttige links

De persoon die verantwoordelijk is voor het invoeren van informatie over het onderzoek stelt deze publicaties vrijwillig ter beschikking. Dit kan gaan over alles wat met het onderzoek te maken heeft.

Algemene publicaties

Studie record data

Deze datums volgen de voortgang van het onderzoeksdossier en de samenvatting van de ingediende resultaten bij ClinicalTrials.gov. Studieverslagen en gerapporteerde resultaten worden beoordeeld door de National Library of Medicine (NLM) om er zeker van te zijn dat ze voldoen aan specifieke kwaliteitscontrolenormen voordat ze op de openbare website worden geplaatst.

Bestudeer belangrijke data

Studie start (Geschat)

4 september 2026

Primaire voltooiing (Geschat)

4 november 2027

Studie voltooiing (Geschat)

10 februari 2028

Studieregistratiedata

Eerst ingediend

3 juli 2026

Eerst ingediend dat voldeed aan de QC-criteria

3 juli 2026

Eerst geplaatst (Werkelijk)

9 juli 2026

Updates van studierecords

Laatste update geplaatst (Werkelijk)

10 juli 2026

Laatste update ingediend die voldeed aan QC-criteria

8 juli 2026

Laatst geverifieerd

1 juli 2026

Meer informatie

Termen gerelateerd aan deze studie

Trefwoorden

Aanvullende relevante MeSH-voorwaarden

Andere studie-ID-nummers

  • SPINE-RISK-VE-2026-001

Plan Individuele Deelnemersgegevens (IPD)

Bent u van plan om gegevens van individuele deelnemers (IPD) te delen?

NEE

Beschrijving IPD-plan

Individual participant data (IPD) will not be shared. This study collects sensitive clinical and psychosocial data from Venezuelan patients In a low-resource setting. The research team does not have access to formal data repository infrastructure for anonymized IPD sharing that meets international data protection standards. Aggregate study results and the derived predictive model (nomogram and machine learning algorithm) will be made publicly available through peer-reviewed publication In an indexed journal.

Informatie over medicijnen en apparaten, studiedocumenten

Bestudeert een door de Amerikaanse FDA gereguleerd geneesmiddel

Nee

Bestudeert een door de Amerikaanse FDA gereguleerd apparaatproduct

Nee

Deze informatie is zonder wijzigingen rechtstreeks van de website clinicaltrials.gov gehaald. Als u verzoeken heeft om uw onderzoeksgegevens te wijzigen, te verwijderen of bij te werken, neem dan contact op met register@clinicaltrials.gov. Zodra er een wijziging wordt doorgevoerd op clinicaltrials.gov, wordt deze ook automatisch bijgewerkt op onze website .

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