Glycemic control is independently associated with rapid progression of coronary atherosclerosis in the absence of a baseline coronary plaque burden: a retrospective case-control study from the PARADIGM registry

Ki-Bum Won, Byoung Kwon Lee, Fay Y Lin, Martin Hadamitzky, Yong-Jin Kim, Ji Min Sung, Edoardo Conte, Daniele Andreini, Gianluca Pontone, Matthew J Budoff, Ilan Gottlieb, Eun Ju Chun, Filippo Cademartiri, Erica Maffei, Hugo Marques, Pedro de Araújo Gonçalves, Jonathon A Leipsic, Sang-Eun Lee, Sanghoon Shin, Jung Hyun Choi, Renu Virmani, Habib Samady, Kavitha Chinnaiyan, Daniel S Berman, Jagat Narula, Leslee J Shaw, Jeroen J Bax, James K Min, Hyuk-Jae Chang, Ki-Bum Won, Byoung Kwon Lee, Fay Y Lin, Martin Hadamitzky, Yong-Jin Kim, Ji Min Sung, Edoardo Conte, Daniele Andreini, Gianluca Pontone, Matthew J Budoff, Ilan Gottlieb, Eun Ju Chun, Filippo Cademartiri, Erica Maffei, Hugo Marques, Pedro de Araújo Gonçalves, Jonathon A Leipsic, Sang-Eun Lee, Sanghoon Shin, Jung Hyun Choi, Renu Virmani, Habib Samady, Kavitha Chinnaiyan, Daniel S Berman, Jagat Narula, Leslee J Shaw, Jeroen J Bax, James K Min, Hyuk-Jae Chang

Abstract

Background: The baseline coronary plaque burden is the most important factor for rapid plaque progression (RPP) in the coronary artery. However, data on the independent predictors of RPP in the absence of a baseline coronary plaque burden are limited. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the predictors for RPP in patients without coronary plaques on baseline coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) images.

Methods: A total of 402 patients (mean age: 57.6 ± 10.0 years, 49.3% men) without coronary plaques at baseline who underwent serial coronary CCTA were identified from the Progression of Atherosclerotic Plaque Determined by Computed Tomographic Angiography Imaging (PARADIGM) registry and included in this retrospective study. RPP was defined as an annual change of ≥ 1.0%/year in the percentage atheroma volume (PAV).

Results: During a median inter-scan period of 3.6 years (interquartile range: 2.7-5.0 years), newly developed coronary plaques and RPP were observed in 35.6% and 4.2% of the patients, respectively. The baseline traditional risk factors, i.e., advanced age (≥ 60 years), male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, obesity, and current smoking status, were not significantly associated with the risk of RPP. Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that the serum hemoglobin A1c level (per 1% increase) measured at follow-up CCTA was independently associated with the annual change in the PAV (β: 0.098, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.048-0.149; P < 0.001). The multiple logistic regression models showed that the serum hemoglobin A1c level had an independent and positive association with the risk of RPP. The optimal predictive cut-off value of the hemoglobin A1c level for RPP was 7.05% (sensitivity: 80.0%, specificity: 86.7%; area under curve: 0.816 [95% CI: 0.574-0.999]; P = 0.017).

Conclusion: In this retrospective case-control study, the glycemic control status was strongly associated with the risk of RPP in patients without a baseline coronary plaque burden. This suggests that regular monitoring of the glycemic control status might be helpful for preventing the rapid progression of coronary atherosclerosis irrespective of the baseline risk factors. Further randomized investigations are necessary to confirm the results of our study.

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02803411.

Keywords: Coronary artery disease; Coronary computed tomography angiography; Hemoglobin A1c; Progression.

Conflict of interest statement

Dr. Jonathon A. Leipsic serves as a consultant and has stock options in HeartFlow and Circle Cardiovascular Imaging; he also receives grant support from GE Healthcare and speaking fees from Philips. Dr. Habib Samady has an equity interest in Covanos. Dr. Daniel Berman receives software royalties from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center. Dr. James K. Min receives funding from the Dalio Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and GE Healthcare. Dr. Min serves on the scientific advisory board of Arineta and GE Healthcare and has an equity interest in Cleerly. All other authors declare that they have no competing interests.

© 2022. The Author(s).

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Receiver operating characteristic curve with respect to the serum hemoglobin A1c level for predicting RPP. RPP: rapid plaque progression RPP: rapid plaque progression

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