Population estimate of people with clinical Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment in the United States (2020-2060)

Abstract

Introduction: The estimate of people with clinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment provides an understanding of the disease burden.

Methods: We estimated people with cognitive impairment using a quasibinomial regression model in 10,342 participants with cognitive test scores.

Results: The 2020 US Census-adjusted prevalence of clinical AD was 11.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.7-11.9): 10.0% among non-Hispanic Whites, 14.0% among Hispanics, and 18.6% among non-Hispanic Blacks. We estimate that in 2020, 6.07 (95% CI = 5.75-6.38) million people were living with clinical AD, which increases to 13.85 (95% CI = 12.98-14.74) million in 2060, 423% higher among Hispanics, 192% higher among Blacks, and 63% higher among Whites. However, there are predicted to be more significant increases in later years among those over 85 and women compared to men.

Discussion: The number of people with clinical AD will increase as the "baby boom" generation reaches older ages, exerting a strong upward influence on disease burden.

Keywords: 2020 US prevalence; clinical Alzheimer's disease; forecasting; mild cognitive impairment.

Conflict of interest statement

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

Nothing to Report.

© 2021 the Alzheimer's Association.

Figures

Figure 1.

Age Distribution of Projected Number of People in the United States (in millions) with Clinical AD from 2020 to 2060 The blue bar shows the estimated US population between 65–74 years old with clinical AD, the grey bar for ages 75–84, and yellow for over 85 years. The six panels show the estimated US population for the projected population from 2020 to 2060. The estimated number of people above bars are in millions.

Figure 2.

Gender Distribution of Projected Number of People in the United States (in millions) with Clinical AD from 2020 to 2060 The red bar shows the estimated number of females with clinical AD, and the green bar shows the estimated number of men in the US. The six panels show the estimated females and males in the US with clinical AD from 2020 to 2060. The estimated number of people above bars are in millions.