CCEDRRN COVID-19 Infection Score (CCIS): development and validation in a Canadian cohort of a clinical risk score to predict SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected COVID-19

Abstract

Objectives: To develop and validate a clinical risk score that can accurately quantify the probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients presenting to an emergency department without the need for laboratory testing.

Design: Cohort study of participants in the Canadian COVID-19 Emergency Department Rapid Response Network (CCEDRRN) registry. Regression models were fitted to predict a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result using clinical and demographic predictors, as well as an indicator of local SARS-CoV-2 incidence.

Setting: 32 emergency departments in eight Canadian provinces.

Participants: 27 665 consecutively enrolled patients who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 in participating emergency departments between 1 March and 30 October 2020.

Main outcome measures: Positive SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid test result within 14 days of an index emergency department encounter for suspected COVID-19 disease.

Results: We derived a 10-item CCEDRRN COVID-19 Infection Score using data from 21 743 patients. This score included variables from history and physical examination and an indicator of local disease incidence. The score had a c-statistic of 0.838 with excellent calibration. We externally validated the rule in 5295 patients. The score maintained excellent discrimination and calibration and had superior performance compared with another previously published risk score. Score cut-offs were identified that can rule-in or rule-out SARS-CoV-2 infection without the need for nucleic acid testing with 97.4% sensitivity (95% CI 96.4 to 98.3) and 95.9% specificity (95% CI 95.5 to 96.0).

Conclusions: The CCEDRRN COVID-19 Infection Score uses clinical characteristics and publicly available indicators of disease incidence to quantify a patient's probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The score can identify patients at sufficiently high risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection to warrant isolation and empirical therapy prior to test confirmation while also identifying patients at sufficiently low risk of infection that they may not need testing.

Trial registration number: NCT04702945.

Keywords: COVID-19; accident & emergency medicine; epidemiology.

Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: ADM, CMH, RR, PMA, SCB, IC, PD, JH, EL, RO, BR, MW, KY, LJM and JP are coinvestigators on the funding sources listed in the funding statement and have no additional competing interests. GG and SV have no competing interests.

© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

Figures

Figure 1

Flow diagram of patients through the .

Figure 2

Distribution and performance of the CCEDRRN COVID-19 infection score in the derivation cohort (left panel) and validation cohorts (right panel): (A) distribution of the score, (B) observed in-hospital mortality across the range of the score, (C) predicted versus observed probability of in-hospital mortality and (D) receiver operating characteristic curve with area under the curve and associated 95% CI. CCEDRRN, Canadian COVID-19 Emergency Department Rapid Response Network.