Seasonal trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and mortality in the United States and Europe

Timothy L Wiemken, Farid Khan, Laura Puzniak, Wan Yang, Jacob Simmering, Philip Polgreen, Jennifer L Nguyen, Luis Jodar, John M McLaughlin, Timothy L Wiemken, Farid Khan, Laura Puzniak, Wan Yang, Jacob Simmering, Philip Polgreen, Jennifer L Nguyen, Luis Jodar, John M McLaughlin

Abstract

Determining whether SARS-CoV-2 exhibits seasonality like other respiratory viruses is critical for public health planning. We evaluated whether COVID-19 rates follow a seasonal pattern using time series models. We used time series decomposition to extract the annual seasonal component of COVID-19 case, hospitalization, and mortality rates from March 2020 through December 2022 for the United States and Europe. Models were adjusted for a country-specific stringency index to account for confounding by various interventions. Despite year-round disease activity, we identified seasonal spikes in COVID-19 from approximately November through April for all outcomes and in all countries. Our results support employing annual preventative measures against SARS-CoV-2, such as administering seasonal booster vaccines in a similar timeframe as those in place for influenza. Whether certain high-risk individuals may need more than one COVID-19 vaccine booster dose each year will depend on factors like vaccine durability against severe illness and levels of year-round disease activity.

Conflict of interest statement

TLW, LP, JMM, LJ, JN, and FK are employees and shareholders of Pfizer Inc.

© 2023. The Author(s).

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Heatmap of COVID-19 median annual seasonal components by month by country, 01 Mar 2020–31 Dec 2022. (A) Cases per million population; (B) COVID-19 hospitalizations per million population. (C) COVID-19 mortality per million population. Data Source: Our World in Data,.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Heatmap of COVID-19 median annual seasonal components by month by country, 01 Mar 2020–31 Dec 2022. (A) Cases per million population; (B) COVID-19 hospitalizations per million population. (C) COVID-19 mortality per million population. Data Source: Our World in Data,.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Heatmap of COVID-19 median annual seasonal components by month by country, 01 Mar 2020–31 Dec 2022. (A) Cases per million population; (B) COVID-19 hospitalizations per million population. (C) COVID-19 mortality per million population. Data Source: Our World in Data,.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Heatmap of the influenza percent positivity median annual seasonal component by month, Oct 2009 through Dec 2021. Data Source: World Health Organization.

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Source: PubMed

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