Therapeutic effect of apatinib on overall survival is mediated by prolonged progression-free survival in advanced gastric cancer patients

Lihong Huang, Yongyue Wei, Sipeng Shen, Qianwen Shi, Jianling Bai, Jin Li, Shukui Qin, Hao Yu, Feng Chen, Lihong Huang, Yongyue Wei, Sipeng Shen, Qianwen Shi, Jianling Bai, Jin Li, Shukui Qin, Hao Yu, Feng Chen

Abstract

Apatinib is reported to significantly improve the overall survival (OS) of patients with advanced gastric cancer who have previously failed second-line chemotherapy. However, it is not well understood whether apatinib acts by improving progression or by prolonging post-progression survival. Here, based on phase III clinical trial data, the mediating effect of apatinib on patient overall survival was systematically quantified, through progression-free survival (PFS), post-progression survival (PPS), and the disease control rate (DCR). PFS was the primary mediator of the association between apatinib treatment and OS, with an indirect-effect mean survival time ratio of 1.63 (95%CI 1.35-1.97), which mediated 93.5% of the treatment effect. The DCR was also a significant mediator among secondary efficacy endpoints, and had an indirect-effect mean survival time ratio of 1.47 (95%CI 1.20-1.79, 50.9% mediated). Both primary and other targets of the DCR had similar results. The results indicated that apatinib treatment prolongs progression-free survival rather than post-progression survival, and in turn, leads to improved overall survival. Additionally, our study highlights the value of mediation analysis in clinical trials in providing additional information to build upon traditional primary analysis.

Keywords: apatinib; gastric cancer; mediation analysis; overall survival; progression-free survival.

Conflict of interest statement

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

None of the authors have any financial or personal conflicts of interest to disclose in relation to this work.

Figures

Figure 1. Prognosis of patients receiving apatinib…
Figure 1. Prognosis of patients receiving apatinib or placebo treatment
Figure 2. Diagram of mediation analysis
Figure 2. Diagram of mediation analysis
Figure 3. Forest plot for mediation analysis…
Figure 3. Forest plot for mediation analysis of DCR
Mediation analysis was performed when patients received three A. or two B. cycles of treatment. Sensitivity analysis was performed as well by excluding patients with censored overall survival C., D.

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