Incubation period of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections among travellers from Wuhan, China, 20-28 January 2020

Jantien A Backer, Don Klinkenberg, Jacco Wallinga, Jantien A Backer, Don Klinkenberg, Jacco Wallinga

Abstract

A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is causing an outbreak of viral pneumonia that started in Wuhan, China. Using the travel history and symptom onset of 88 confirmed cases that were detected outside Wuhan in the early outbreak phase, we estimate the mean incubation period to be 6.4 days (95% credible interval: 5.6-7.7), ranging from 2.1 to 11.1 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentile). These values should help inform 2019-nCoV case definitions and appropriate quarantine durations.

Keywords: 2019-nCoV; Wuhan; exposure; incubation period; novel coronavirus; symptom onset.

Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Exposure to reporting timeline for confirmed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases with travel history from Wuhan, sorted by symptom onset date, data 20–28 January 2020 (n = 88)
Figure 2
Figure 2
The cumulative density function of the estimated Weibull incubation period distribution for travellers infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, data 20–28 January 2020
Figure 3
Figure 3
Box-and-whisker-plots of estimated incubation periods for coronaviruses from different studies

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Source: PubMed

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