Incidence, prevalence, and management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1984-2005: a population study

Abstract

Objectives: Intraductal mucinous papillary neoplasm (IPMN) is being recognized with increasing frequency around the world. The true incidence, however, remains unknown. Our goal was to determine the incidence of IPMN in a population study.

Methods: We used the records-linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to ascertain age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates of IPMN in Olmsted County, Minn, from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2005. We also evaluated the number of prevalent cases as of December 31, 2005.

Results: We identified 28 incident cases of IPMN. The age- and sex-adjusted cumulative incidence for IPMN in Olmsted County is 2.04 cases per 100,000 persons (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28-2.80) from 1984 to 2005. Point prevalence on December 31, 2005, was 25.96 cases per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 14.53-37.38 cases) or 1 per 3852. Restricting to county residents 60 years and older, the point prevalence is 99.10 cases per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 54.40-143.79 cases) or one per 1009 persons. Thirty-two percent of patients were treated surgically. The 5-year survival rate after diagnosis was 59.6%.

Conclusions: The incidence of IPMN in Olmsted County is low but increasing. Most patients do not die of complications related to the disease.

Figures

FIGURE 1

Relationship of Olmsted County to city of Rochester and state of Minnesota. Each dot represents the center of each city (Minneapolis and Rochester). MSA refers to the Metropolitan Statistical Area which includes parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin as MSA is determined by counties. The center of Rochester, Minn, is 150 km from the center of Minneapolis/St Paul MSA.

FIGURE 2

Incidence rate and 95% CI for IPMN in Olmsted County from 1984 to 2005.

FIGURE 3

Survival of cohort over time.