Patients with acute heart failure discharged from the emergency department and classified as low risk by the MEESSI score (multiple risk estimate based on the Spanish emergency department scale): prevalence of adverse events and predictability

Abstract

Objectives: To determine the rate of adverse events in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) who were discharged from the emergency department (ED) after classification as low risk according to MEESSI score (multiple risk estimate based on the Spanish ED scale), to analyze the ability of the score to predict events, and to explore variables associated with adverse events.

Methods: Patients in the EAHFE registry (Epidemiology of Acute Heart Failure in EDs) were stratified according to risk indicated by MEESSI score in order to identify those considered at low risk on discharge. All-cause 30-day mortality and revisits related to AHF within 7 days and 30 days were recorded. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated for the MEESSI score's ability to predict these events. Associations between 42 variables and 7-day and 30-day revisits to the ED were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression.

Results: A total of 1028 patients were included. The 30-day mortality rate was 1.6% (95% CI, 0.9%-2.5%). The 7-day and 30-day revisit rates were 8.0% (95% CI, 6.4%-9.8%) and 24.7% (95% CI, 22.1%-25.7%), respectively. The AUCs for MEESSI score discrimination between patients with and without these outcomes were as follows: 30-day mortality, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.58-0.80); 7-day revisiting, 0.56 (95% CI, 0.49-0.63); and 30-day revisiting, 0.54 (95% CI, 0.50-0.59). Variables associated with 7-day revisits were long-term diuretic treatment (odds ratio [OR], 2.45; 95% CI, 1.01-5.98), hemoglobin concentration less than 110 g/L (OR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.02-2.75), and intravenous diuretic treatment in the ED (OR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.31-0.90). Variables associated with 30-day revisits were peripheral artery disease (OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.01-3.00), prior history of an AHF episode (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.02-1.98), long-term mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist treatment (OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.09-2.67), Barthel index less than 90 points in the ED (OR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.07-2.06), and intravenous diuretic treatment in the ED (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.40-0.84).

Conclusion: Patients with AHF who are at low risk for adverse events on discharge from our EDs have event rates that are near internationally recommended targets. The MEESSI score, which was designed to predict 30-day mortality, is a poor predictor of 7-day or 30-day revisiting in these low-risk patients. We identified other factors related to these events.

Keywords: Emergency department; Hospitalization; Acute heart failure; Emergency revisits; Estratificación de riesgo; Hospitalización; Insuficiencia cardiaca aguda; Mortalidad; Mortality; Revisita; Risk assessment; Urgencias.