Validation of the HellenicSCORE (a Calibration of the ESC SCORE Project) Regarding 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Greece

Abstract

Introduction: There is increasing interest in indexes that estimate the individual risk of developing a cardiovascular disease (CVD) event; the European Society of Cardiology (ESC), in the latest guidelines (2012) for CVD prevention, acknowledged the importance of risk evaluation through risk scores, i.e. the ESC SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Estimation). However, there has been much discussion about the reliability of such CVD risk scores among different populations. The ESC SCORE is a CVD risk-specific tool for Europe, based on datasets from 12 European countries (Greece did not participate). In the mid-2000s the HellenicSCORE, a calibration of the ESC SCORE based on national mortality data and prevalence regarding risk factors as reported by the ATTICA study, was proposed for the Greek population and became a part of daily clinical practice. This validation of the HellenicSCORE was performed using the 10-year follow-up examination of the ATTICA study participants.

Methods: Of the 3042 participants of the ATTICA study (enrolment 2001-2002), 2583 were contacted in the 10-year follow-up (2011-2012). The HellenicSCORE as calculated using participants' baseline characteristics was tested against the 10-year CVD event rates.

Results: The 10-year fatal or non-fatal CVD incidence rate was 15.7% (19.7% in men and 11.7% in women). The HellenicSCORE correctly predicted 95.6% of fatal CVD cases and 93.2% of the fatal and non-fatal CVD cases. No interactions with sex, age group or comorbidities were observed.

Conclusion: The HellenicSCORE is a valid tool for CVD risk estimation in Greek subjects. The present work suggests a calibration methodology that could be used by other nations for CVD risk estimation.