Fall Injury Mortality Prediction

Development of a Mortality Prediction Model for Fall Injury Patients: An Analysis of the PATOS Trauma Registry

This retrospective, multicenter, registry-based cohort study used data from the Pan-Asian Trauma Outcomes Study registry between January 2016 and December 2024. Adult patients with fall-related trauma were included if they had available data on age, sex, emergency department vital signs, and 30-day mortality. The final cohort was randomly divided into derivation and validation cohorts in a 2:1 ratio. Candidate predictors were selected based on clinical relevance, field triage criteria, prior trauma literature, and early availability. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the model, and regression coefficients were converted into an integer-based score. Model performance was assessed using discrimination, calibration, Brier score, and threshold-based metrics.

Study Overview

• Status: Completed
• Conditions: Fall; Trauma Injury; Mortality Prediction
• Intervention / Treatment: Other: Prediction model development

• Study Type: Observational
• Enrollment (Actual): 58353

Participation Criteria

Eligibility Criteria

• Ages Eligible for Study: Adult; Older Adult
• Accepts Healthy Volunteers: Yes

• Sampling Method: Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

Among patients with traumatic injuries recorded in the PATOS registry between January 2016 and December 2024, those with fall-related injuries were screened for eligibility. Patients younger than 18 years and those with missing data on age, sex, ED vital signs, or 30-day mortality were excluded.

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

• Among patients with traumatic injuries recorded in the PATOS registry between January 2016 and December 2024, those with fall-related injuries were screened for eligibility.

Exclusion Criteria:

• Patients younger than 18 years and those with missing data on age, sex, ED vital signs, or 30-day mortality were excluded.

Study Plan

How is the study designed?

Number of groups / cohorts

1

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort	Intervention / Treatment
Fall injury group; adult patients with fall-related trauma	Other: Prediction model development; Prediction model development

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure	Measure Description	Time Frame
30-day Mortality	30-day Mortality	30-day

Collaborators and Investigators

• Sponsor: Mackay Memorial Hospital
• Collaborators: Taipei Medical University; National Taiwan University Hospital, Yun-Lin Branch

Study record dates

Study Major Dates

• Study Start (Actual): January 1, 2016
• Primary Completion (Actual): December 31, 2024
• Study Completion (Actual): December 31, 2024

Study Registration Dates

• First Submitted: June 6, 2026
• First Submitted That Met QC Criteria: June 6, 2026
• First Posted (Actual): June 11, 2026

Study Record Updates

• Last Update Posted (Actual): June 11, 2026
• Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria: June 6, 2026
• Last Verified: June 1, 2026

More Information

Terms related to this study

• Additional Relevant MeSH Terms: Wounds and Injuries; Accidental Injuries
• Other Study ID Numbers: 26MMHIS178e

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

• Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?: NO

Drug and device information, study documents

• Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product: No
• Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product: No