Blood profile of proteins and steroid hormones predicts weight change after weight loss with interactions of dietary protein level and glycemic index

Ping Wang, Claus Holst, Malene R Andersen, Arne Astrup, Freek G Bouwman, Sanne van Otterdijk, Will K W H Wodzig, Marleen A van Baak, Thomas M Larsen, Susan A Jebb, Anthony Kafatos, Andreas F H Pfeiffer, J Alfredo Martinez, Teodora Handjieva-Darlenska, Marie Kunesova, Wim H M Saris, Edwin C M Mariman, Ping Wang, Claus Holst, Malene R Andersen, Arne Astrup, Freek G Bouwman, Sanne van Otterdijk, Will K W H Wodzig, Marleen A van Baak, Thomas M Larsen, Susan A Jebb, Anthony Kafatos, Andreas F H Pfeiffer, J Alfredo Martinez, Teodora Handjieva-Darlenska, Marie Kunesova, Wim H M Saris, Edwin C M Mariman

Abstract

Background: Weight regain after weight loss is common. In the Diogenes dietary intervention study, high protein and low glycemic index (GI) diet improved weight maintenance.

Objective: To identify blood predictors for weight change after weight loss following the dietary intervention within the Diogenes study.

Design: Blood samples were collected at baseline and after 8-week low caloric diet-induced weight loss from 48 women who continued to lose weight and 48 women who regained weight during subsequent 6-month dietary intervention period with 4 diets varying in protein and GI levels. Thirty-one proteins and 3 steroid hormones were measured.

Results: Angiotensin I converting enzyme (ACE) was the most important predictor. Its greater reduction during the 8-week weight loss was related to continued weight loss during the subsequent 6 months, identified by both Logistic Regression and Random Forests analyses. The prediction power of ACE was influenced by immunoproteins, particularly fibrinogen. Leptin, luteinizing hormone and some immunoproteins showed interactions with dietary protein level, while interleukin 8 showed interaction with GI level on the prediction of weight maintenance. A predictor panel of 15 variables enabled an optimal classification by Random Forests with an error rate of 24±1%. A logistic regression model with independent variables from 9 blood analytes had a prediction accuracy of 92%.

Conclusions: A selected panel of blood proteins/steroids can predict the weight change after weight loss. ACE may play an important role in weight maintenance. The interactions of blood factors with dietary components are important for personalized dietary advice after weight loss.

Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00390637.

Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1. The predicting power of blood…
Figure 1. The predicting power of blood analytes for weight loss maintenance by Logistic Regression.
Volcano plot of the significance P-value versus odd ratio exp(B) of blood proteins/steroids for predicting continued weight loss during the 6-month maintenance period by logistic regression controlled for age and the fold change of weight. The symbols of the analytes are listed in Table 1. Suffix “_1”: concentration at CID1, “_2”: concentration at CID2, “_12”: the fold change of concentration CID2/CID1. The analytes are grouped as in Table 1 and marked in different shape/color.
Figure 2. Top 15 important predictors for…
Figure 2. Top 15 important predictors for weight loss maintenance identified by Random Forest.
A. The variables are ranked by the average of 10 runs on the mean decrease in classification accuracy (MDA) or by the mean decrease in classification Gini impurity (MDG). Suffix “_1”: concentration at CID1, “_2”: concentration at CID2, “_12”: fold change of the concentration (CID2/CID1). The symbol of blood analytes are listed in Table 1. B. Classification plot of continued weight-losers (red dots) and weight-regainers (blue triangles) during weight maintenance in pooled subjects (n = 96) by the top15 important variables.
Figure 3. The relation between weight maintenance…
Figure 3. The relation between weight maintenance score and the fold change of ACE during weight loss.
Boxplot shows the quartile range of weight maintenance score with outliers (in circle) across tertile of the fold change of ACE during weight loss, for subjects with low (≤9.6µmol/L, n = 48, blank bar) and with high (>9.6 µmol/L n = 47, grey bar) baseline fibrinogen level. The variation of weight maintenance score attributed to the fold change of ACE, p = 0.478 in low group and p = 0.014 in high group, was tested by one-way ANOVA controlled for age and the fold change of weight, and Bonferroni test for multiple comparisons. *T3 significantly different from T1 in high fibrinogen group, p = 0.013.
Figure 4. Predictors having interaction with dietary…
Figure 4. Predictors having interaction with dietary components for the outcome of weight maintenance.
Boxplots show the quartile range of the blood analytes without outliers for continued weight-losers (blank bar) and weight-regainers (grey bar) in each dietary group. The p-value above the chart is the significance of the interaction between dietary protein/GI and the concentration/change of the blood analyte with respect to the outcome of weight maintenance (weight-loss or -regain). The p-values under the chart is the significance of the prediction of the variable inside the subgroups. All were obtained by logistic regression (controlled for age and the fold change of weight). A. predictors having interaction with dietary protein levels. LP: low protein, HP: high protein. B. predictors having interaction with dietary glycemic index (GI) levels. LGI: low GI, HGI: high GI.

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