Variability in Weight Change Early in Behavioral Weight Loss Treatment: Theoretical and Clinical Implications

Emily H Feig, Michael R Lowe, Emily H Feig, Michael R Lowe

Abstract

Objective: Response early in weight loss treatment predicts long-term weight change. Weight variability, independent of absolute early weight change, may also relate to long-term outcomes. This study examined whether weight variability early in treatment predicted later weight loss and maintenance.

Methods: Participants were 183 completers of a yearlong behavioral weight loss program (mean age = 51, 81% female, 69% white, mean BMI = 35 kg/m2 ). Weight variability was calculated using weights from the first 6 and 12 weekly treatment sessions. Multiple linear regressions examined whether weight variability predicted subsequent weight change 6, 12, and 24 months later.

Results: Weight variability over 6- and 12-week periods predicted less subsequent weight loss at 12 months (6-week: β = 0.18, P = 0.02; 12-week: β = 0.33, P < 0.01) and 24 months (6-week: β = 0.17, P = 0.03; 12-week: β = 0.15, P = 0.05). Relationships held when adjusting for covariates. Weight variability was more strongly associated with 6-month weight change in men than women (β = 0.27, P = 0.01).

Conclusions: Elevated weight variability early in a weight loss program predicted poor long-term outcomes, possibly reflecting inconsistent weight control behaviors. Tracking weight variability could prove useful for improving treatment outcomes.

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01065974.

Conflict of interest statement

Disclosure: MRL receives compensation from funded users of the Power of Food Scale. EHF declared no conflict of interest.

© 2017 The Obesity Society.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Weekly weights for a participant with a low (left; root mean square error = 0.72) and high (right; root mean square error = 2.85) 12-week weight variability score. The x-axis represents weeks since the start of treatment and the y-axis represents weight in pounds. The weight variability score indicates the mean distance between each data point and the regression line for that individual, so higher weight variability score indicates a larger spread of individual data points around the best fitting line.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Scatterplots of weight variability (x-axis) and subsequent percent weight change (y-axis). Higher weight variability was associated with less weight loss. Top: 6-week weight variability; Bottom: 12-week weight variability; Left: percent weight change at 12 months; Right: percent weight change at 24 months.

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Source: PubMed

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