[Coronary risk estimation in Spain using a calibrated Framingham function]

Abstract

Introduction and objectives: The Framingham coronary heart disease (CHD) functions overestimate the risk of CHD in countries with a low incidence. Consequently, these functions should be calibrated for the purpose of primary prevention. Calibrated Framingham function charts of overall CHD risk for the Spanish population are presented. Patients and methods. The Framingham functions were calibrated by substituting the prevalence of CHD risk factors and incidence found in Framingham with the same values for Spain. The Framingham function that included high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol was used. The 10-year probability of developing a CHD event was estimated for several combinations of risk factors and HDL levels ranging from 35 to 59 mg/dl. Color-coded charts were prepared that show the exact probability of CHD corresponding to each combination of risk factors, shown in separate cells on the chart.

Results: The event rate and prevalence of CHD risk factors differed considerably between Girona and Framingham. HDL < 35 mg/dL increased risk by approximately 50% and HDL > 60 mg/dL reduced it by 50%. The proportion of cells in which the 10-year probability of developing a CHD event was > 9% was 2.3 times higher and that of cells with a probability > 19% was 13 times lower in the chart calibrated for Spain than in the original Framingham charts.

Conclusions: The calibrated Framingham function may help to more accurately estimate the overall risk of CHD in the Spanish population for primary prevention purposes. The calibrated function should be validated, and the development of functions for the Spanish population should be promoted.