Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergencies and the Need for Hospitalization (PRED-URG)

March 21, 2022 updated by: Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris

Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System in Ile-de-France for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergency Department and the Need for Hospitalization

The main objective of this retrospective study is to validate a prediction system of emergencies department (ED) attendance on a wide range of time and the need for hospitalization, at various levels of perimeter (with all emergency departments or one ED in particular), with all patients or with one sub-group of patients (age, gravity, care).

Study Overview

Status

Recruiting

Detailed Description

As secondary objectives, the study aims:

  • to measure the influence of different factors as environmental or structural and to identify the modifiable factors, then to allow us to test by simulation, impact of various interventions (for example: opening of hospitals and reinforcement of ED teams) on arrival flows or regenerated tension inside ED teams.
  • to study the relation between the flows (arrival patients, hospitalized patients) and the time of ED visit or the indicators of tension of ED team.
  • Typology of ED in the region of Paris permitting afterward comparison the benchmarking type between similar structures.

This retrospective study will be performed on database: individual data in the region of Paris of summation of ED visits and data on the structures of health cares, as well as environmental data (principal given cares, weather, moves, circulations, pollution, strikes, vacations, etc.)

Study Type

Observational

Enrollment (Anticipated)

18000000

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Contact

Study Locations

    • Val-de-Marne
      • Bry sur Marne, Val-de-Marne, France, 94360
        • Recruiting
        • Emergency Department - Bry sur Marne Hospital
        • Contact:

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Ages Eligible for Study

  • Child
  • Adult
  • Older Adult

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Genders Eligible for Study

All

Sampling Method

Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

Adults or children who have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015 are all eligibles with unlimited number of care.

85 Health Facilities in Ile de France who have emergency departments will participate the study.

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

  • All subjects have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015.

Exclusion Criteria:

  • None

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
Prediction of emergency department visits
Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Calculated base on regional database: individual data of summation of ED visits in the region of Paris and structural data of health cares
throughout the study, an average of 18 months

Secondary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
Prediction by age
Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
By sub-group of child or senior
throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Prediction by lever of gravity
Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Prediction by type of care
Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
By type : (medical, surgical or intensive) care
throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Prediction by need of hospitalization or no
Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Relation between flow of patients and indicator of tension of team
Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Relation between flow of patients and time of ED visit
Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Typology of ED of the region of Paris
Time Frame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
throughout the study, an average of 18 months

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Investigators

  • Principal Investigator: Mathias WARGON, MD, Emergency Department - Bry sur Marne Hospital

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Actual)

June 1, 2021

Primary Completion (Anticipated)

December 1, 2023

Study Completion (Anticipated)

December 1, 2023

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

February 6, 2017

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

February 9, 2017

First Posted (Actual)

February 14, 2017

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Actual)

March 22, 2022

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

March 21, 2022

Last Verified

March 1, 2022

More Information

Terms related to this study

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?

NO

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

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