First-onset major depression during the COVID-19 pandemic: A predictive machine learning model

Daniela Caldirola, Silvia Daccò, Francesco Cuniberti, Massimiliano Grassi, Alessandra Alciati, Tatiana Torti, Giampaolo Perna, Daniela Caldirola, Silvia Daccò, Francesco Cuniberti, Massimiliano Grassi, Alessandra Alciati, Tatiana Torti, Giampaolo Perna

Abstract

Background: This study longitudinally evaluated first-onset major depression rates during the pandemic in Italian adults without any current clinician-diagnosed psychiatric disorder and created a predictive machine learning model (MLM) to evaluate subsequent independent samples.

Methods: An online, self-reported survey was released during two pandemic periods (May to June and September to October 2020). Provisional diagnoses of major depressive disorder (PMDD) were determined using a diagnostic algorithm based on the DSM criteria of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 to maximize specificity. Gradient-boosted decision trees and the SHapley Additive exPlanations technique created the MLM and estimated each variable's predictive contribution.

Results: There were 3532 participants in the study. The final sample included 633 participants in the first wave (FW) survey and 290 in the second (SW). First-onset PMDD was found in 7.4% of FW participants and 7.2% of the SW. The final MLM, trained on the FW, displayed a sensitivity of 76.5% and a specificity of 77.8% when tested on the SW. The main factors identified in the MLM were low resilience, being an undergraduate student, being stressed by pandemic-related conditions, and low satisfaction with usual sleep before the pandemic and support from relatives. Current smoking and taking medication for medical conditions also contributed, albeit to a lesser extent.

Limitations: Small sample size; self-report assessment; data covering 2020 only.

Conclusions: Rates of first-onset PMDD among Italians during the first phases of the pandemic were considerable. Our MLM displayed a good predictive performance, suggesting potential goals for depression-preventive interventions during public health crises.

Keywords: COVID-19; Depression; First-onset; General population; Machine learning; Predictive model.

Conflict of interest statement

The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Flow diagram of the participant selection process for the aim of the study.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Variables included in the final ML predictive model and average of the absolute SHAP values for each variable, ordered by their relevance to the model (train dataset, first wave). The larger the absolute SHAP value of a certain variable, the larger the contribution of that variable in determining that prediction in a specific case. Specifically, a higher risk of first-onset provisional diagnosis of major depressive disorder (PMDD) was associated with higher agreement with “BRS-item 6”; higher levels of “Being scared of transmitting COVID-19”; higher disagreement with “BRS-item 3”; lower levels of “satisfaction with the usual sleep before the pandemic”; higher levels of “Being stressed by pandemic-related restrictions on activities and personal movement ”; being an undergraduate student (“Employment status”); higher disagreement with “perception of being supported..”; having continued or started smoking (“Smoking habit during the pandemic”); yes (“current medications for medical diseases”); and yes (“Having experienced a loved one's hospitalization”). ML: machine learning; SHAP: SHapley Additive exPlanations technique.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Variables included in the final ML predictive model and average of the absolute SHAP values for each variable, ordered by their relevance to the model (test dataset, second wave). The larger the absolute SHAP value of a certain variable, the larger the contribution of that variable in determining that prediction in a specific case. Specifically, a higher risk of first-onset provisional diagnosis of major depressive disorder (PMDD) was associated with higher agreement with “BRS-item 6”; higher levels of “Being scared of transmitting COVID-19”; being an undergraduate student (“Employment status”); higher disagreement with “BRS-item 3”; higher levels of “Being stressed by pandemic-related restrictions on activities and personal movement ”; lower levels of “satisfaction with the usual sleep before the pandemic”; higher disagreement with “perception of being supported..”; having continued or started smoking (“Smoking habit during the pandemic”); yes (“current medications for medical diseases”); and yes (“Having experienced a loved one's hospitalization”) ML: machine learning; SHAP: SHapley Additive exPlanations technique.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Levels of the variables plotted against the associated SHAP values in the second wave. SHAP: SHapley Additive exPlanations technique.

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