Cardiovascular disease risk prediction models in the Chinese population- a systematic review and meta-analysis

Guo Zhiting, Tang Jiaying, Han Haiying, Zhang Yuping, Yu Qunfei, Jin Jingfen, Guo Zhiting, Tang Jiaying, Han Haiying, Zhang Yuping, Yu Qunfei, Jin Jingfen

Abstract

Background: There is an increasing prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in China, which represents the leading cause of mortality. Precise CVD risk identification is the fundamental prevention component. This study sought to systematically review the CVD risk prediction models derived and/or validated in the Chinese population to promote primary CVD prevention.

Methods: Reports were included if they derived or validated one or more CVD risk prediction models in the Chinese population. PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, Scopus, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), VIP database, etc., were searched. The risk of bias was assessed with the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Meta-analysis was performed in R using the package metamisc.

Results: From 55,183 records, 22 studies were included. Twelve studies derived 18 CVD risk prediction models, of which seven models were derived based on a multicentre cohort including more than two provinces of mainland China, and one was a model developed based on a New Zealand cohort including Chinese individuals. The number of predictors ranged from 6 to 22. The definitions of predicted outcomes showed considerable heterogeneity. Fourteen articles described 29 validations of 8 models. The Framingham model and pooled cohort equations (PCEs) are the most frequently validated foreign tools. Discrimination was acceptable and similar for men and women among models (0.60-0.83). The calibration estimates changed substantially from one population to another. Prediction for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Risk in China (China-PAR) showed good calibration [observed/expected events ratio = 0.99, 95% PI (0.57,1.70)] and female sex [1.10, 95% PI (0.23,5.16)].

Conclusions: Several models have been developed or validated in the Chinese population. The usefulness of most of the models remains unclear due to incomplete external validation and head-to-head comparison. Future research should focus on externally validating or tailoring these models to local settings.

Trail registration: This systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews, CRD42021277453).

Keywords: Cardiovascular diseases; Prediction model; Risk.

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

© 2022. The Author(s).

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Flow diagram of selected studies
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Risk of bias assessment
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Forest plots of the OE ratio in external validations
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Forest plots of the c-statistic in external validations

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