Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak

Shi Zhao, Qianyin Lin, Jinjun Ran, Salihu S Musa, Guangpu Yang, Weiming Wang, Yijun Lou, Daozhou Gao, Lin Yang, Daihai He, Maggie H Wang, Shi Zhao, Qianyin Lin, Jinjun Ran, Salihu S Musa, Guangpu Yang, Weiming Wang, Yijun Lou, Daozhou Gao, Lin Yang, Daihai He, Maggie H Wang

Abstract

Backgrounds: An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak.

Methods: Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI.

Findings: The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R0.

Conclusion: The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and is significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The scenarios of the change in the reporting rate (top panels) and the exponential growth fitting (bottom panels). The top panels, i.e., (a), (c), (e), (g), (i) and (k), show the assumed change in the reporting rate. The bottom panels, i.e., (b), (d), (f), (h), (j) and (l), show the reported (or observed, green circles), adjusted (blue dots) and fitted (blue curve) number of 2019-nCoV infections, and the blue dashed lines are the 95%CI. The vertical grey line represents the date of January 16, 2020, after which the official diagnostic protocol was released by the WHO (World Health Organization, 2020). Panels (a) and (b) show the scenarios that the reporting rate was unchanged. Panels (c) and (d) show the scenarios that the reporting rate increased by 0.5-fold. Panels (e) and (f) show the scenarios that the reporting rate increased by 1-fold. Panels (g) and (h) show the scenarios that the reporting rate increased by 2-fold. Panels (i) and (j) show the scenarios that the reporting rate increased by 4-fold. Panels (k) and (l) show the scenarios that the reporting rate increased by 8-fold.

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