Forecasting ED Overcrowding With Statistical Methods: A Prospective Validation Study

January 6, 2022 updated by: Tampere University Hospital
The aim of this study is to prospectively validate statistical forecasting tools that have been widely used retrospectively in forecasting ED overcrowding

Study Overview

Status

Not yet recruiting

Conditions

Intervention / Treatment

Detailed Description

Emergency department (ED) overcrowding is a chronic international issue that has been repeatedly associated with detrimental treatment outcomes such increased 10-day-mortality. Forecasting future overcrowding would enable pre-emptive staffing decisions that could alleviate or prevent overcrowding along with its detrimental effects.

Over the years, several predictive algorithms have been proposed ranging from generalized linear models to state space models and, more recently, deep learning algorithms. However, the performance of these algorithms has only been reported retrospectively and the clinically significant accuracy of these algorithms remains unclear.

In this study the investigators aim to investigate the accuracy of the previously reported ED forecasting algorithms in a prospective setting analogous to the way these tools would be used if used implemented as a decision-support system in a real-life clinical setting.

Study Type

Observational

Enrollment (Anticipated)

160000

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Contact

Study Contact Backup

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Ages Eligible for Study

16 years and older (Child, Adult, Older Adult)

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Genders Eligible for Study

All

Sampling Method

Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

Tampere University Hospital is an academic hospital located in Tampere, Finland. It serves a population of 535,000 in the Pirkanmaa Hospital District and, as a tertiary hospital, an additional population of 365,700 and provides level 1 trauma centre capabilities.

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

  • All patients presenting in the Emergency Department

Exclusion Criteria:

  • No exclusion criteria

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Measure Description
Time Frame
Next day overcrowding
Time Frame: 24 hours
A day is defined as overcrowded if daily peak occupancy exceeds 80 patients, and severely overcrowded if daily peak occupancy exceeds 100 patients.
24 hours

Secondary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Time Frame
Number of hourly arrivals in the ED 24 hours ahead
Time Frame: 24 hour
24 hour
Hourly occupancy in the ED 24 hours ahead
Time Frame: 24 hour
24 hour
Number of daily arrivals in the ED 7 days ahead
Time Frame: 24 hour
24 hour
Daily peak occupancy in the ED 7 days ahead
Time Frame: 24 hours
24 hours

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Tampere University Hospital

Publications and helpful links

The person responsible for entering information about the study voluntarily provides these publications. These may be about anything related to the study.

General Publications

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Anticipated)

January 1, 2022

Primary Completion (Anticipated)

February 28, 2022

Study Completion (Anticipated)

December 31, 2022

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

December 13, 2021

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

December 13, 2021

First Posted (Actual)

December 30, 2021

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Actual)

January 10, 2022

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

January 6, 2022

Last Verified

January 1, 2022

More Information

Terms related to this study

Keywords

Additional Relevant MeSH Terms

Other Study ID Numbers

  • ed-pro

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?

NO

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

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