Clinical Decision Rule for Excluding Shoulder Fractures (SFER)

April 26, 2026 updated by: Ahmed Samir, Cairo University

Development and External Validation of a Clinical Decision Rule for Excluding Shoulder Fractures: A Prospective Multicentre Diagnostic Accuracy and Cost-Effectiveness Study (SFER Study)

Many patients with shoulder injuries undergo X-rays even when fractures are unlikely, leading to unnecessary costs and delays in care. This study aims to develop a simple and reliable clinical tool to help healthcare providers determine when imaging is not required. By evaluating this tool in a large number of patients, we aim to improve patient care, reduce waiting times, and optimize the use of healthcare resources.

Study Overview

Status

Not yet recruiting

Conditions

Intervention / Treatment

Detailed Description

Abstract Shoulder trauma is a common presentation in orthopedic and emergency settings and frequently leads to routine radiographic imaging despite a relatively low prevalence of fractures. This practice contributes to increased healthcare costs, unnecessary radiation exposure, and inefficiencies in patient flow. Currently, no validated clinical decision rule exists to safely exclude shoulder fractures. We will conduct a prospective, multicentre diagnostic accuracy study in a high-volume orthopedic setting, enrolling approximately 1200 adult patients presenting with acute shoulder trauma. The study will include derivation and external validation cohorts. All participants will undergo standardized clinical assessment using the SFER clinical decision rule, followed by radiographic imaging as the reference standard. The primary outcome is sensitivity for fracture detection, with secondary outcomes including specificity, negative predictive value, reduction in imaging rates, missed fracture rate, inter-rater reliability, and cost-effectiveness. We hypothesize that the SFER rule will achieve sensitivity ≥95% with a missed fracture rate <1%, enabling safe reduction of unnecessary imaging and improving clinical efficiency.

Study Type

Observational

Enrollment (Estimated)

1216

Contacts and Locations

This section provides the contact details for those conducting the study, and information on where this study is being conducted.

Study Contact

Study Locations

Participation Criteria

Researchers look for people who fit a certain description, called eligibility criteria. Some examples of these criteria are a person's general health condition or prior treatments.

Eligibility Criteria

Ages Eligible for Study

  • Adult
  • Older Adult

Accepts Healthy Volunteers

No

Sampling Method

Non-Probability Sample

Study Population

Adult patients aged 18 years or older presenting with acute shoulder trauma within 7 days of injury will be eligible for inclusion

- Patients with polytrauma, previous shoulder surgery, open fractures, or inability to cooperate with clinical assessment will be excluded.

Description

Inclusion Criteria:

  • Adult patients aged 18 years or older presenting with acute shoulder trauma within 7 days of injury will be eligible for inclusion

Exclusion Criteria:

- Patients with polytrauma, previous shoulder surgery, open fractures, or inability to cooperate with clinical assessment will be excluded.

Study Plan

This section provides details of the study plan, including how the study is designed and what the study is measuring.

How is the study designed?

Design Details

Cohorts and Interventions

Group / Cohort
Intervention / Treatment
Clinical Decision Rule
All participants will undergo standardized assessment using the SFER clinical decision rule
Diagnostic test: The SFER clinical decision rule

All participants will undergo assessment using a structured clinical decision framework designed to stratify patients with acute shoulder trauma into high- and low-risk categories for fracture.

In the initial stage, patients will be screened for high-risk features based on demographic factors, symptom severity, and mechanism of injury. Individuals meeting any high-risk criteria will be referred for immediate radiographic evaluation.

Patients not classified as high-risk will proceed to a secondary functional assessment stage. This stage incorporates a series of standardized clinical tests evaluating range of motion, localized tenderness, functional loading capacity, and soft tissue signs. Fracture will be considered unlikely only when all functional criteria are within normal limits.

Radiographic imaging will be indicated if any abnormal finding is identified during assessment. All variables will be predefined and recorded using standardized criteria to ensure reproducibility and minim

Diagnostic test: X - ray
Radiographic imaging (X-ray) will be performed for all participants and will serve as the reference standard for fracture diagnosis. Radiographs will be interpreted by qualified radiologists who will be blinded to the results of the clinical assessment to reduce diagnostic bias.

What is the study measuring?

Primary Outcome Measures

Outcome Measure
Time Frame
Sensitivity
Time Frame: through study completion, an average of 6 months
through study completion, an average of 6 months
Senstivity
Time Frame: through study completion, an average of 6 months
through study completion, an average of 6 months

Collaborators and Investigators

This is where you will find people and organizations involved with this study.

Sponsor

Cairo University

Study record dates

These dates track the progress of study record and summary results submissions to ClinicalTrials.gov. Study records and reported results are reviewed by the National Library of Medicine (NLM) to make sure they meet specific quality control standards before being posted on the public website.

Study Major Dates

Study Start (Estimated)

July 1, 2026

Primary Completion (Estimated)

December 1, 2026

Study Completion (Estimated)

December 1, 2026

Study Registration Dates

First Submitted

April 17, 2026

First Submitted That Met QC Criteria

April 26, 2026

First Posted (Actual)

May 4, 2026

Study Record Updates

Last Update Posted (Actual)

May 4, 2026

Last Update Submitted That Met QC Criteria

April 26, 2026

Last Verified

April 1, 2026

More Information

Terms related to this study

Keywords

Additional Relevant MeSH Terms

Other Study ID Numbers

  • SFERStudy

Plan for Individual participant data (IPD)

Plan to Share Individual Participant Data (IPD)?

NO

Drug and device information, study documents

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated drug product

No

Studies a U.S. FDA-regulated device product

No

This information was retrieved directly from the website clinicaltrials.gov without any changes. If you have any requests to change, remove or update your study details, please contact register@clinicaltrials.gov. As soon as a change is implemented on clinicaltrials.gov, this will be updated automatically on our website as well.

Clinical Trials on Shoulder Fractures

Clinical Trials on The SFER clinical decision rule

Search Similar Trials

Sponsors and Collaborators

Medical Conditions

Drug Interventions

CROs by country

CROs in Ireland

Conditions

Rare Diseases

Drug Interventions

Dietary Supplements

Sponsor/Collaborators

Locations

Subscribe