Epidemiology and time trends of distal forearm fractures in adults - a study of 11.2 million person-years in Sweden

Daniel Jerrhag, Martin Englund, Magnus K Karlsson, Bjorn E Rosengren, Daniel Jerrhag, Martin Englund, Magnus K Karlsson, Bjorn E Rosengren

Abstract

Background: A distal forearm fracture is a very common injury causing both suffering and substantial health care costs. The incidence of this fracture type seemed to increase worldwide until the middle 1980's, but thereafter most reports have shown stable or decreasing rates. As few large studies have been presented lately we aimed to describe recent epidemiology and time trends of distal forearm fractures in adults. We paid special attention to fractures in working ages as they present challenges in terms of treatment and costs for sick-leave, and have not previously been thoroughly investigated.

Methods: By use of population data from Statistics Sweden and official in- and out-patient register data of men and women (≥17 years) in Sweden (Skåne region), we ascertained distal forearm fractures and estimated age- and sex-specific rates and time-trends from year 1999 to 2010 (11.2 million person-years (py)).

Results: The total incidence rate was 278 per 100,000 py (31,233 fractures) with 23% higher annual numbers 2010 compared with 1999. An increase in the annual age standardized incidence was found in men, +0.7% per annum (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1, 1.4), and women, +0.9% (95% CI 0.5, 1.3), driven mainly by an increasing incidence in working ages (17-64 years). Also, expected demographic changes including a 25% population increase may result in 38% more fractures until 2050, compared to 2017.

Conclusions: The incidence of distal forearm fractures in adults in southern Sweden is increasing, mainly driven by an increase in working ages. In combination with expected demographic changes these findings may present substantial challenges for the future.

Keywords: Distal radius fracture; Epidemiology; Forecast; Time-trends; Wrist fracture.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Projection of numbers of distal forearm fractures in Sweden the forthcoming decades (2017–2050). Age strata in years. Change in % from 2017 to 2050. Over all incidence in 1-year age groups in Skåne region, Sweden 1999–2010 used for calculation (see methods)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Projection of numbers of distal forearm fractures in Sweden in working and non-working ages. Age strata in years. Change in % from 2017 to 2050. Over all incidence in 1-year age groups in Skåne region, Sweden 1999–2010 used for calculation (see methods)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
a. Reported incidence of distal forearm fractures in men per 100,000 py during the last 6 decades. b. Reported incidence of distal forearm fractures in women per 100,000 py during the last 6 decades. [, , , , , –, , , –45]

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