Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Marie Ng, Tom Fleming, Margaret Robinson, Blake Thomson, Nicholas Graetz, Christopher Margono, Erin C Mullany, Stan Biryukov, Cristiana Abbafati, Semaw Ferede Abera, Jerry P Abraham, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh, Tom Achoki, Fadia S AlBuhairan, Zewdie A Alemu, Rafael Alfonso, Mohammed K Ali, Raghib Ali, Nelson Alvis Guzman, Walid Ammar, Palwasha Anwari, Amitava Banerjee, Simon Barquera, Sanjay Basu, Derrick A Bennett, Zulfiqar Bhutta, Jed Blore, Norberto Cabral, Ismael Campos Nonato, Jung-Chen Chang, Rajiv Chowdhury, Karen J Courville, Michael H Criqui, David K Cundiff, Kaustubh C Dabhadkar, Lalit Dandona, Adrian Davis, Anand Dayama, Samath D Dharmaratne, Eric L Ding, Adnan M Durrani, Alireza Esteghamati, Farshad Farzadfar, Derek F J Fay, Valery L Feigin, Abraham Flaxman, Mohammad H Forouzanfar, Atsushi Goto, Mark A Green, Rajeev Gupta, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Graeme J Hankey, Heather C Harewood, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon Hay, Lucia Hernandez, Abdullatif Husseini, Bulat T Idrisov, Nayu Ikeda, Farhad Islami, Eiman Jahangir, Simerjot K Jassal, Sun Ha Jee, Mona Jeffreys, Jost B Jonas, Edmond K Kabagambe, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Andre Pascal Kengne, Yousef Saleh Khader, Young-Ho Khang, Daniel Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Jonas M Kinge, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Soewarta Kosen, Gene Kwan, Taavi Lai, Mall Leinsalu, Yichong Li, Xiaofeng Liang, Shiwei Liu, Giancarlo Logroscino, Paulo A Lotufo, Yuan Lu, Jixiang Ma, Nana Kwaku Mainoo, George A Mensah, Tony R Merriman, Ali H Mokdad, Joanna Moschandreas, Mohsen Naghavi, Aliya Naheed, Devina Nand, K M Venkat Narayan, Erica Leigh Nelson, Marian L Neuhouser, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Samuel O Oti, Andrea Pedroza, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Nobhojit Roy, Uchechukwu Sampson, Hyeyoung Seo, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Kenji Shibuya, Rahman Shiri, Ivy Shiue, Gitanjali M Singh, Jasvinder A Singh, Vegard Skirbekk, Nicolas J C Stapelberg, Lela Sturua, Bryan L Sykes, Martin Tobias, Bach X Tran, Leonardo Trasande, Hideaki Toyoshima, Steven van de Vijver, Tommi J Vasankari, J Lennert Veerman, Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Theo Vos, Claire Wang, XiaoRong Wang, Elisabete Weiderpass, Andrea Werdecker, Jonathan L Wright, Y Claire Yang, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Jihyun Yoon, Seok-Jun Yoon, Yong Zhao, Maigeng Zhou, Shankuan Zhu, Alan D Lopez, Christopher J L Murray, Emmanuela Gakidou, Marie Ng, Tom Fleming, Margaret Robinson, Blake Thomson, Nicholas Graetz, Christopher Margono, Erin C Mullany, Stan Biryukov, Cristiana Abbafati, Semaw Ferede Abera, Jerry P Abraham, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh, Tom Achoki, Fadia S AlBuhairan, Zewdie A Alemu, Rafael Alfonso, Mohammed K Ali, Raghib Ali, Nelson Alvis Guzman, Walid Ammar, Palwasha Anwari, Amitava Banerjee, Simon Barquera, Sanjay Basu, Derrick A Bennett, Zulfiqar Bhutta, Jed Blore, Norberto Cabral, Ismael Campos Nonato, Jung-Chen Chang, Rajiv Chowdhury, Karen J Courville, Michael H Criqui, David K Cundiff, Kaustubh C Dabhadkar, Lalit Dandona, Adrian Davis, Anand Dayama, Samath D Dharmaratne, Eric L Ding, Adnan M Durrani, Alireza Esteghamati, Farshad Farzadfar, Derek F J Fay, Valery L Feigin, Abraham Flaxman, Mohammad H Forouzanfar, Atsushi Goto, Mark A Green, Rajeev Gupta, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Graeme J Hankey, Heather C Harewood, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon Hay, Lucia Hernandez, Abdullatif Husseini, Bulat T Idrisov, Nayu Ikeda, Farhad Islami, Eiman Jahangir, Simerjot K Jassal, Sun Ha Jee, Mona Jeffreys, Jost B Jonas, Edmond K Kabagambe, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Andre Pascal Kengne, Yousef Saleh Khader, Young-Ho Khang, Daniel Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Jonas M Kinge, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Soewarta Kosen, Gene Kwan, Taavi Lai, Mall Leinsalu, Yichong Li, Xiaofeng Liang, Shiwei Liu, Giancarlo Logroscino, Paulo A Lotufo, Yuan Lu, Jixiang Ma, Nana Kwaku Mainoo, George A Mensah, Tony R Merriman, Ali H Mokdad, Joanna Moschandreas, Mohsen Naghavi, Aliya Naheed, Devina Nand, K M Venkat Narayan, Erica Leigh Nelson, Marian L Neuhouser, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Samuel O Oti, Andrea Pedroza, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Nobhojit Roy, Uchechukwu Sampson, Hyeyoung Seo, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Kenji Shibuya, Rahman Shiri, Ivy Shiue, Gitanjali M Singh, Jasvinder A Singh, Vegard Skirbekk, Nicolas J C Stapelberg, Lela Sturua, Bryan L Sykes, Martin Tobias, Bach X Tran, Leonardo Trasande, Hideaki Toyoshima, Steven van de Vijver, Tommi J Vasankari, J Lennert Veerman, Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Theo Vos, Claire Wang, XiaoRong Wang, Elisabete Weiderpass, Andrea Werdecker, Jonathan L Wright, Y Claire Yang, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Jihyun Yoon, Seok-Jun Yoon, Yong Zhao, Maigeng Zhou, Shankuan Zhu, Alan D Lopez, Christopher J L Murray, Emmanuela Gakidou

Abstract

Background: In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013.

Methods: We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19,244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Findings: Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m(2) or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4-29·3) to 36·9% (36·3-37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3-30·2) to 38·0% (37·5-38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9-24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7-23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7-8·6) to 12·9% (12·3-13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1-8·8) to 13·4% (13·0-13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down.

Interpretation: Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.