Influence of Monitoring Strategy on Assessment of Ablation Success and Postablation Atrial Fibrillation Burden Assessment: Implications for Practice and Clinical Trial Design

Abstract

Background: Various noninvasive intermittent rhythm monitoring strategies have been used to assess arrhythmia recurrences in trials evaluating pharmacological and invasive therapeutic interventions for atrial fibrillation (AF). We determined whether a frequency and duration of noninvasive rhythm monitoring could be identified that accurately detects arrhythmia recurrences and approximates the AF burden derived from continuous monitoring using an implantable cardiac monitor (ICM).

Methods: The rhythm history of 346 patients enrolled in the CIRCA-DOSE trial (Cryoballoon Versus Contact-Force Irrigated Radiofrequency Catheter Ablation) was reconstructed. Using computer simulations, we evaluated event-free survival, sensitivity, negative predictive value, and AF burden of a range of noninvasive monitoring strategies, including those used in contemporary AF ablation trials.

Results: A total of 126 290 monitoring days were included in the analysis. At 12 months, 164 patients experienced atrial arrhythmia recurrence as documented by the ICM (1-year event-free survival, 52.6%). Most noninvasive monitoring strategies used in AF ablation trials had poor sensitivity for detecting arrhythmia recurrence. Sensitivity increased with the intensity of monitoring, with serial (3) short-duration monitors (24-/48-hour ECG monitors) missing a substantial proportion of recurrences (sensitivity, 15.8% [95% CI, 8.9%-20.7%] and 24.5% [95% CI, 16.2%-30.6%], respectively). Serial (3) longer-term monitors (14-day ECG monitors) more closely approximated the gold standard ICM (sensitivity, 64.6% [95% CI, 53.6%-74.3%]). AF burden derived from short-duration monitors significantly overestimated the true AF burden in patients with recurrences. Increasing monitoring duration resulted in improved correlation and concordance between noninvasive estimates of the invasive AF burden (R2 = 0.85 and interclass correlation coefficient = 0.91 for serial [3] 14-day ECG monitors versus ICM).

Conclusions: The observed rate of postablation atrial tachyarrhythmia recurrence is highly dependent on the arrhythmia monitoring strategy employed. Between-trial discrepancies in outcomes may reflect different monitoring protocols. On the basis of measures of agreement, serial long-term (7-14 day) intermittent monitors accumulating at least 28 days of annual monitoring provide estimates of AF burden comparable with ICM. However, ICMs outperform intermittent monitoring for arrhythmia detection, and should be considered the gold standard for clinical trials. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01913522.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation.