Distribution of major health risks: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study

Abstract

Background: Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness.

Methods and findings: For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity) 43%-61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1-3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median.

Conclusions: Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce substantial reductions in disease burden.

Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. ADL is a member of the editorial board of PLoS Medicine.

Figures

Figure 1. Distribution by Exposure Level of Attributable Disease Burden Due to Selected Continuous Risk Factors

Figure 1 shows the distribution of the estimated cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden of disease (in DALYs) attributable to four major continuous risk factors, by exposure levels. Half the attributable burden occurs to the left of the solid vertical line and half occurs to the right. The dashed vertical lines indicate commonly used thresholds—150 mm Hg for hypertension, 6.0 mmol/l for hypercholesterolemia, and 30 kg/m2 for obesity. The blood pressure and cholesterol levels plotted are the estimated usual levels [22], which tend to have a smaller SD than levels based on one-off measurements commonly used in population surveys, because of normal day-to-day and week-to-week fluctuations. For example, the distribution of usual blood pressure is about half as wide as the distribution of one-off blood pressure measures, and so many fewer people would be classified as hypertensive (or hypotensive) if classifications were based on usual rather than one-off blood pressure. Thus, if a population mean SBP was 134 mm Hg, the SD of once-only measures might be 17 mm Hg (with about 18% of the population having one-off SBP over 150 mm Hg), and the SD of usual SBP based on many measures would be about 9 mm Hg (hence about 5% of the population would have usual SBP over 150 mm Hg).

Figure 2. Distribution of Attributable Cardiovascular Disease Burden Due to BMI, Blood Pressure, and Cholesterol by Exposure Level, Age, and Level of Development

Conventions as for Figure 1.