Impact of insecticide resistance in Anopheles arabiensis on malaria incidence and prevalence in Sudan and the costs of mitigation

Hmooda Toto Kafy, Bashir Adam Ismail, Abraham Peter Mnzava, Jonathan Lines, Mogahid Shiekh Eldin Abdin, Jihad Sulieman Eltaher, Anuar Osman Banaga, Philippa West, John Bradley, Jackie Cook, Brent Thomas, Krishanthi Subramaniam, Janet Hemingway, Tessa Bellamy Knox, Elfatih M Malik, Joshua O Yukich, Martin James Donnelly, Immo Kleinschmidt, Hmooda Toto Kafy, Bashir Adam Ismail, Abraham Peter Mnzava, Jonathan Lines, Mogahid Shiekh Eldin Abdin, Jihad Sulieman Eltaher, Anuar Osman Banaga, Philippa West, John Bradley, Jackie Cook, Brent Thomas, Krishanthi Subramaniam, Janet Hemingway, Tessa Bellamy Knox, Elfatih M Malik, Joshua O Yukich, Martin James Donnelly, Immo Kleinschmidt

Abstract

Insecticide-based interventions have contributed to ∼78% of the reduction in the malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa since 2000. Insecticide resistance in malaria vectors could presage a catastrophic rebound in disease incidence and mortality. A major impediment to the implementation of insecticide resistance management strategies is that evidence of the impact of resistance on malaria disease burden is limited. A cluster randomized trial was conducted in Sudan with pyrethroid-resistant and carbamate-susceptible malaria vectors. Clusters were randomly allocated to receive either long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) alone or LLINs in combination with indoor residual spraying (IRS) with a pyrethroid (deltamethrin) insecticide in the first year and a carbamate (bendiocarb) insecticide in the two subsequent years. Malaria incidence was monitored for 3 y through active case detection in cohorts of children aged 1 to <10 y. When deltamethrin was used for IRS, incidence rates in the LLIN + IRS arm and the LLIN-only arm were similar, with the IRS providing no additional protection [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36-3.0; P = 0.96)]. When bendiocarb was used for IRS, there was some evidence of additional protection [interaction IRR = 0.55 (95% CI: 0.40-0.76; P < 0.001)]. In conclusion, pyrethroid resistance may have had an impact on pyrethroid-based IRS. The study was not designed to assess whether resistance had an impact on LLINs. These data alone should not be used as the basis for any policy change in vector control interventions.

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01713517.

Keywords: Anopheles; insecticide; malaria; pyrethroid; resistance.

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Change in deltamethrin mortality (Upper) and Vgsc-1014F (Lower) across study years and between single (LLIN) and dual (LLIN + IRS) intervention arms. Box whisker plots show the median (bold line) and interquartile range (boxes). Phenotypic data were available from six LLIN and five LLIN + IRS clusters in 2012, six LLIN and six LLIN + IRS clusters in 2013, and 11 LLIN and 13 LLIN + IRS clusters in 2014. Genotypic data were available for all 26 clusters for all years. In 2014, there was significantly (P = 0.038) higher mortality (less resistance) in the LLIN + IRS arm (n = 13; mortality = 68%; 95% CI: 60.0–76.0) compared with the LLIN-only arm (n = 11; mortality = 56.1%; 95% CI: 47.1–64.9).
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Cluster-specific malaria case incidence and cluster-specific malaria infection prevalence plotted against cluster-specific phenotypic resistance (bioassay mortality after standard exposure to deltamethrin) and against cluster-specific Vgsc-1014F allele frequency for 2012, 2013, and 2014 in Galabat, Sudan.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Map of the study area in Galabat, southeastern Sudan. Triangles denote clusters with LLIN only, and circles denote clusters with LLIN + IRS.

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