The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

GBD Tuberculosis Collaborators, Hmwe H Kyu, Emilie R Maddison, Nathaniel J Henry, John Everett Mumford, Ryan Barber, Chloe Shields, Jonathan C Brown, Grant Nguyen, Austin Carter, Timothy M Wolock, Haidong Wang, Patrick Y Liu, Marissa Reitsma, Jennifer M Ross, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Kaja Abbas, Mubarek Abera, Semaw Ferede Abera, Habtamu Abera Hareri, Muktar Ahmed, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Joshua Amo-Adjei, Jason Andrews, Hossein Ansari, Carl Abelardo Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Hamid Asayesh, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Sachin Atre, Aleksandra Barac, Justin Beardsley, Neeraj Bedi, Isabela Bensenor, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Zahid Ahmad Butt, Pere-Joan Cardona, Devasahayam Christopher, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Kebede Deribe, Amare Deribew, Rebecca Ehrenkranz, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Aman Endries, Tesfaye R Feyissa, Florian Fischer, Ruoyan Gai, Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Hailay Gesesew, Belete Getahun, Philimon Gona, Amador Goodridge, Harish Gugnani, Hassan Haghparast-Bidgoli, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Esayas Hilawe, Nobuyuki Horita, Kathryn H Jacobsen, Jost B Jonas, Amir Kasaeian, Muktar Sano Kedir, Laura Kemmer, Yousef Khader, Ejaz Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Abdullah T Khoja, Yun Jin Kim, Parvaiz Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kristopher J Krohn, G Anil Kumar, Michael Kutz, Rakesh Lodha, Hassan Magdy And El Razek, Reza Majdzadeh, Tsegahun Manyazewal, Ziad Memish, Walter Mendoza, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Shafiu Mohammed, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, Eyal Oren, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, David Pereira, Dietrich Plass, Farshad Pourmalek, Mostafa Qorbani, Anwar Rafay, Mahfuzar Rahman, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Puja C Rao, Sarah E Ray, Robert Reiner, Nickolas Reinig, Saeid Safiri, Joshua A Salomon, Logan Sandar, Benn Sartorius, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Muki Shey, Desalegn Markos Shifti, Hirbo Shore, Jasvinder Singh, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Soumya Swaminathan, Scott J Swartz, Fentaw Tadese, Bemnet Amare Tedla, Balewgizie Sileshi Tegegne, Belay Tessema, Roman Topor-Madry, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Olalekan A Uthman, Vasiliy Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Tolassa Wakayo, Solomon Weldegebreal, Ronny Westerman, Abdulhalik Workicho, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok-Jun Yoon, Marcel Yotebieng, Mohsen Naghavi, Simon I Hay, Theo Vos, Christopher Jl Murray, GBD Tuberculosis Collaborators, Hmwe H Kyu, Emilie R Maddison, Nathaniel J Henry, John Everett Mumford, Ryan Barber, Chloe Shields, Jonathan C Brown, Grant Nguyen, Austin Carter, Timothy M Wolock, Haidong Wang, Patrick Y Liu, Marissa Reitsma, Jennifer M Ross, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Kaja Abbas, Mubarek Abera, Semaw Ferede Abera, Habtamu Abera Hareri, Muktar Ahmed, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Joshua Amo-Adjei, Jason Andrews, Hossein Ansari, Carl Abelardo Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Hamid Asayesh, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Sachin Atre, Aleksandra Barac, Justin Beardsley, Neeraj Bedi, Isabela Bensenor, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Zahid Ahmad Butt, Pere-Joan Cardona, Devasahayam Christopher, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Kebede Deribe, Amare Deribew, Rebecca Ehrenkranz, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Aman Endries, Tesfaye R Feyissa, Florian Fischer, Ruoyan Gai, Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Hailay Gesesew, Belete Getahun, Philimon Gona, Amador Goodridge, Harish Gugnani, Hassan Haghparast-Bidgoli, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Esayas Hilawe, Nobuyuki Horita, Kathryn H Jacobsen, Jost B Jonas, Amir Kasaeian, Muktar Sano Kedir, Laura Kemmer, Yousef Khader, Ejaz Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Abdullah T Khoja, Yun Jin Kim, Parvaiz Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kristopher J Krohn, G Anil Kumar, Michael Kutz, Rakesh Lodha, Hassan Magdy And El Razek, Reza Majdzadeh, Tsegahun Manyazewal, Ziad Memish, Walter Mendoza, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Shafiu Mohammed, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, Eyal Oren, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, David Pereira, Dietrich Plass, Farshad Pourmalek, Mostafa Qorbani, Anwar Rafay, Mahfuzar Rahman, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Puja C Rao, Sarah E Ray, Robert Reiner, Nickolas Reinig, Saeid Safiri, Joshua A Salomon, Logan Sandar, Benn Sartorius, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Muki Shey, Desalegn Markos Shifti, Hirbo Shore, Jasvinder Singh, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Soumya Swaminathan, Scott J Swartz, Fentaw Tadese, Bemnet Amare Tedla, Balewgizie Sileshi Tegegne, Belay Tessema, Roman Topor-Madry, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Olalekan A Uthman, Vasiliy Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Tolassa Wakayo, Solomon Weldegebreal, Ronny Westerman, Abdulhalik Workicho, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok-Jun Yoon, Marcel Yotebieng, Mohsen Naghavi, Simon I Hay, Theo Vos, Christopher Jl Murray

Abstract

Background: An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories.

Methods: We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes.

Findings: Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (-4·1% [-5·0 to -3·4]) than in incidence (-1·6% [-1·9 to -1·2]) and prevalence (-0·7% [-1·0 to -0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3-13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8-14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8-12·0).

Interpretation: Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Global age-sex distribution of tuberculosis incidence (A) and deaths (B) in HIV-negative individuals in 2015
Figure 2
Figure 2
Age-standardised rates (per 100 000 population) of tuberculosis incidence (A) and mortality (B) in HIV-negative individuals in 2015 for both sexes ATG=Antigua and Barbuda. FSM=Federated States of Micronesia. LCA=Saint Lucia. Marshall Isl=Marshall Islands. Solomon Isl=Solomon Islands. TLS=Timor-Leste. TTO=Trinidad and Tobago. VCT=Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Estimated observed and expected age-standardised rates of tuberculosis incidence (A), prevalence (B), and mortality (C) per 100 000 population among HIV-negative individuals based on SDI, 1990–2015 Each point on a line represents 1 year, starting at 1990 and ending at 2015. In all regions, SDI has increased year on year, so progress in SDI is associated with later years for a given region. The black lines indicate trajectories for each geography expected based on SDI alone. SDI=Socio-demographic Index.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Age-standardised population-attributable fractions of tuberculosis deaths due to diabetes, alcohol use, and smoking among HIV-negative men and women in 1990, 2005, and 2015

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Source: PubMed

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