Potential New Approaches in Predicting Adverse Cardiac Events One Month after Major Vascular Surgery

Abstract

Objective: The aim of our study was to find the best model with sufficient power to improve the risk stratification in major vascular surgery patients during the first 30 days after this procedure. The discriminatory power of 4 biomarkers (troponin I [TnI], N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], creatine kinase-MB isoenzyme [CK-MB], high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hs-CRP]) was tested as well as 2 risk assessment models and 13 different combinations of them.

Subjects and methods: The study included 122 patients (77% men, 23% women) with an average age of 67.03 ± 4.5 years. An aortobifemoral bypass was performed in 6.56% of the patients, a femoropopliteal bypass in 18.85%, and 49.18% received open surgical reconstruction of the carotid arteries. A total of 25.41% of the patients were given an aortobi-iliac bypass.

Results: During the first 30 days, 13 patients (10.7%) had 17 cardiac complications. The most common complication was the new onset of atrial fibrillation (35.3%). During the first 10 days, 10 patients had 1 complication and 2 patients had 2 cardiac events, while 1 patient had 3 complications. By comparing combinations of scores and markers, it was shown that revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) + Vascular Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score (V-POSSUM) + hsTnI and RCRI + V-POSSUM + hsTnI + NT-proBNP with 100% sensitivity, > 80% specificity had the best discriminatory ability (AUC 0.924 and 0.933, respectively; p < 0.001 for both models) for cardiac complications during the 30 days after surgery.

Conclusion: Combinations of traditional preoperative risk factors and scores can enhance the assessment of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in patients preparing for large vascular surgery. Using only one risk score in these patients seems to be underperforming in preoperative risk assessment.

Keywords: Cardiac biomarkers; Revised cardiac risk index; Risk assessment; Risk score; Vascular surgery.

© 2018 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

Figures

Fig. 1

ROC curves for various combinations of biomarkers in relation to the occurrence of cardiac complications during the first month.

Fig. 2

ROC curves for various combinations of biomarkers in comparison to the occurrence of cardiac complications during the first month.