An exhaustive review and analysis on applications of statistical forecasting in hospital emergency departments

Abstract

Emergency departments (EDs) provide medical treatment for a broad spectrum of illnesses and injuries to patients who arrive at all hours of the day. The quality and efficient delivery of health care in EDs are associated with a number of factors, such as patient overall length of stay (LOS) and admission, prompt ambulance diversion, quick and accurate triage, nurse and physician assessment, diagnostic and laboratory services, consultations and treatment. One of the most important ways to plan the healthcare delivery efficiently is to make forecasts of ED processes. The aim this study is thus to provide an exhaustive review for ED stakeholders interested in applying forecasting methods to their ED processes. A categorisation, analysis and interpretation of 102 papers is performed for review. This exhaustive review provides an insight for researchers and practitioners about forecasting in EDs in terms of showing current state and potential areas for future attempts.

Keywords: Statistical forecasting; emergency departments; review.

Conflict of interest statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

© 2018 Operational Research Society.

Figures

Figure 1.

Article identification and selection process flow chart

Figure 2.

Input/Throughput/Output model of ED patient flow (Adapted from Committee on the Future of Emergency Care in the United States Health System, 2006)

Figure 3.

Distribution of papers according to forecasting theme for the EDs

Figure 4.

Distribution of ED patient demand forecasting papers in terms of data type

Figure 5.

Distribution of papers in terms of performance measures used

Figure 6.

Distribution of papers by publication year

Figure 7.

Distribution of papers by published database

Figure 8.

Distribution of papers in terms of country of origin