Bleak Present, Bright Future: Online Episodic Future Thinking, Scarcity, Delay Discounting, and Food Demand

Yan Yan Sze, Jeffrey S Stein, Warren K Bickel, Rocco A Paluch, Leonard H Epstein, Yan Yan Sze, Jeffrey S Stein, Warren K Bickel, Rocco A Paluch, Leonard H Epstein

Abstract

Obesity is associated with steep discounting of the future and increased food reinforcement. Episodic future thinking (EFT), a type of prospective thinking, has been observed to reduce delay discounting (DD) and improve dietary decision making. In contrast, negative income shock (i.e., abrupt transitions to poverty) has been shown to increase discounting and may worsen dietary decision-making. Scalability of EFT training and protective effects of EFT against simulated negative income shock on DD and demand for food were assessed. In two experiments we showed online-administered EFT reliably reduced DD. Furthermore, EFT reduced DD and demand for fast foods even when challenged by negative income shock. Our findings suggest EFT is a scalable intervention that has implications for improving public health by reducing discounting of the future and demand for high energy dense food.

Keywords: Episodic future thinking; delay discounting; online interventions; reinforcing value of food; scarcity.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Mean log k changes from baseline to post-training (mean ± SEM) for small, medium, large reward magnitudes and overall log k between episodic future thinking (EFT) and episodic recent thinking (ERT) condition. A reduction in log k indicates less discounting of the future. As indicated in the figure, EFT was significantly different from ERT in each analysis.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Mean area-under-the-curve (AUC) values (mean ± SEM) for main effects of cue-type (left panel) and narrative type (right panel). Greater AUC indicates less discounting of the future.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Mean indices of food reinforcement (mean ± SEM) for main effects of cue-type (elasticity, top left panel; intensity, top right panel; Omax, bottom left panel; Breakpoint, bottom right panel. Greater elasticity values indicate more sensitive to price.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Mean intensity of demand for fast foods (mean ± SEM) for main effects of income narrative.

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