Validation of Four Prediction Scores for Cardiac Surgery-Associated Acute Kidney Injury in Chinese Patients

Wuhua Jiang, Jiarui Xu, Bo Shen, Chunsheng Wang, Jie Teng, Xiaoqiang Ding, Wuhua Jiang, Jiarui Xu, Bo Shen, Chunsheng Wang, Jie Teng, Xiaoqiang Ding

Abstract

Objective: To assess the clinical value of four models for the prediction of cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI) and severe AKI which renal replacement therapy was needed (RRT-AKI) in Chinese patients.

Methods: 1587 patients who underwent cardiac surgery in the department of cardiac surgery in the Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, between January 2013 and December 2013 were enrolled in this research. Evaluating the predicting value for cardiac surgery-associated AKI (AKICS score) and RRT-AKI (Cleveland score, SRI and Mehta score) by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for the calibration and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the discrimination.

Results: Based on 2012 KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) AKI definition, the incidence of AKI and RRT-AKI was 37.4% (594/1587) and 1.1% (18/1587), respectively. The mortality of AKI and RRT-AKI was 6.1% (36/594) and 66.7% (12/18), respectively, while the total mortality was 2.8% (44/1587). The discrimination (AUROC=0.610) for the prediction of CSA-AKI of AKICS was low, while the calibration (x2=7.55, P=0.109) was fair. For the prediction of RRT-AKI, the discrimination of Cleveland score (AUROC=0.684), Mehta score (AUROC=0.708) and SRI (AUROC=0.622) were not good; while the calibration of them were fair (Cleveland score x2=1.918, P=0.166; Mehta score x2=9.209, P=0.238; SRI x2=2.976, P=0.271).

Conclusion: In our single-center study, based upon valve surgery dominant and less diabetes mellitus patients, according to KDIGO AKI definition, the predictive value of the four models, combining discrimination and calibration, for respective primary event, were not convincible.

Conflict of interest statement

No conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
ROC curve for the prediction of CSA-AKI of AKICS score.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
ROC curves for the prediction of RRT-AKI of Cleveland score, Mehta score and SRI.

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