Diabetes 2030: Insights from Yesterday, Today, and Future Trends

William R Rowley, Clement Bezold, Yasemin Arikan, Erin Byrne, Shannon Krohe, William R Rowley, Clement Bezold, Yasemin Arikan, Erin Byrne, Shannon Krohe

Abstract

To forecast future trends in diabetes prevalence, morbidity, and costs in the United States, the Institute for Alternative Futures has updated its diabetes forecasting model and extended its projections to 2030 for the nation, all states, and several metropolitan areas. This paper describes the methodology and data sources for these diabetes forecasts and discusses key implications. In short, diabetes will remain a major health crisis in America, in spite of medical advances and prevention efforts. The prevalence of diabetes (type 2 diabetes and type 1 diabetes) will increase by 54% to more than 54.9 million Americans between 2015 and 2030; annual deaths attributed to diabetes will climb by 38% to 385,800; and total annual medical and societal costs related to diabetes will increase 53% to more than $622 billion by 2030. Improvements in management reducing the annual incidence of morbidities and premature deaths related to diabetes over this time period will result in diabetes patients living longer, but requiring many years of comprehensive management of multiple chronic diseases, resulting in dramatically increased costs. Aggressive population health measures, including increased availability of diabetes prevention programs, could help millions of adults prevent or delay the progression to type 2 diabetes, thereby helping turn around these dire projections.

Conflict of interest statement

Author Disclosure Statement Drs. Rowley and Bezold, and Ms. Arikan, Ms. Byrne, and Ms. Krohe declared the following conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: Dr. Rowley, Dr. Bezold, and Ms. Arikan are employed by the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF), an independent nonprofit futures institute. IAF has received grants in the past from many health care organizations and pharmaceutical industry clients for health futures work. None of the 3 authors receive any other compensation from Novo Nordisk; they have no conflict of interest issues to report. Ms. Byrne and Ms. Krohe are employees of Novo Nordisk Inc. They reviewed all drafts of the methodology, the generated diabetes data, and the manuscripts that were developed and written by Dr. Rowley, Dr. Bezold, and Ms. Arikan. They provided their suggestions. The authors received the following financial support for this article: Funding for this study was provided by Novo Nordisk Inc.

Figures

FIG. 1.
FIG. 1.
Prevalence of total diabetes as a percent of total population for each state for 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 based on the Diabetes 2030 Model (age adjusted to standard population).

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Source: PubMed

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