Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

Philip K Thornton, Polly J Ericksen, Mario Herrero, Andrew J Challinor, Philip K Thornton, Polly J Ericksen, Mario Herrero, Andrew J Challinor

Abstract

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades.

Keywords: agriculture; climate variability; development; food system; poverty; uncertainty; vulnerability.

© 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1
The effect of changes in temperature distribution on extremes. Different changes of temperature distributions between present and future climate and their effects on extreme values of the distributions: (a) Effects of a simple shift of the entire distribution towards a warmer climate; (b) effects of an increase in temperature variability with no shift of the mean; (c) effects of an altered shape of the distribution, in this example a change in asymmetry towards the hotter part of the distribution. From IPCC (2012).
Fig 2
Fig 2
The relationship between rainfall variability expressed as the 12-month Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation (WASP) and growth in GDP and agricultural GDP in three countries in sub-Saharan Africa: (a) Ethiopia, (b) Niger, (c) Mozambique. Data sources: World Bank, data.worldbank.org/indicator and the IRI data library, iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/.
Fig 3
Fig 3
The differential impacts of across-the-board changes in rainfall CV of −1%, +1% and +2% on population distribution by rainfall variability in developing (a) and developed (b) countries.

References

    1. Ahmed SA, Diffenbaugh NS, Hertel TW, Lobell DB, Ramankutty N, Rios AR, Rowhani P. Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania. Global Environmental Change. 2011;21:46–55.
    1. Antón J, Kimura S, Lankoski J, Cattaneo A. A comparative study of risk management in agriculture under climate change; Agriculture and Fisheries Working Papers, No. 58; OECD Food; 2012. OECD Publishing. Available at: (accessed 4 February 2013)
    1. Barbier B, Yacouba H, Karambiri H, Zorome M, Some B. Human vulnerability to climate variability in the Sahel: farmers’ adaptation strategies in northern Burkina Faso. Environmental Management. 2009;43:790–803.
    1. Barnett BJ, Barrett CB, Skees JR. Poverty traps and index-based risk transfer products. World Development. 2008;36:1766–1785.
    1. Baylis M, Githeko AK. Report for the foresight project on detection of infectious diseases. Department of trade and industry UK government; 2006. The effects of climate change on infectious diseases of animals.
    1. Bouwer LM. Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2011;92:39–46. January 2011,
    1. Brown A, Milton S, Cullen M, Golding B, Mitchell J, Shelly A. Unified modeling and prediction of weather and climate: a 25-year journey. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2012;93:1865–1877.
    1. Challinor AJ, Ewert F, Arnold S, Simelton E, Fraser E. Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. Journal of Experimental Botany. 2009;60:2775–2789.
    1. Challinor AJ, Stafford Smith M, Thornton PK. Agro-climate ensembles: emerging tools for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2013;170:2–7.
    1. Challinor AJ, Watson J, Lobell DB, Howden SM, Smith DR, Chhetri N. A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nature Climate Change. 2014a;4:287–291.
    1. Challinor AJ, Martre P, Asseng S, Thornton PK, Ewert F. Making the most of climate impact ensembles. Nature Climate Change. 2014b;4:77–80.
    1. CIESIN. Center for International Earth Science Information Network. Global Subnational Prevalence of Child Malnutrition v1. 2005b. Available at: (accessed 7 November 2012)
    1. CIESIN. Gridded Population of the World Version 3 (GPWv3): Population Grids. Palisades, NY: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), Columbia University; 2005a. Center for International Earth Science Information Network Columbia University and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) Available at: . (accessed 7 November 2012)
    1. Codjoe S, Owusu G. Climate change/variability and food systems: evidence from the Afram Plains, Ghana. Regional Environmental Change. 2011;11:753–765.
    1. Cory RM, Crump BC, Dobkowski JA, Kling GW. Surface exposure to sunlight stimulates CO2 release from permafrost soil carbon in the Arctic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United states of America. 2013;110:3429–3434.
    1. Costello A, Abbas M, Allen A, et al. Managing the health effects of climate change. Lancet. 2009;373:1693–1733.
    1. Craine JM, Nippert JB, Elmore AJ, Skibbe AM, Hutchinson SL, Brunsell NA. Timing of climate variability and grassland productivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United states of America. 2012;109:3401–3405.
    1. Craufurd PQ, Wheeler TR. Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops. Journal of Experimental Botany. 2009;60:2529–2539.
    1. CRED. EM-DAT: Emergency Events Database. Belgium: Université Catholique de Louvain; 2008. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Available at:
    1. Crespo O, Hachigonta S, Tadross M. Sensitivity of southern African maize yields to the definition of sowing dekad in a changing climate. Climatic Change. 2011;106:267–283.
    1. Dai A. Drought under global warming: a review. WIREs Climate Change. 2011;2011:45–65.
    1. Dougill AJ, Fraser EDG, Reed MS. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 32. UK: University of Leeds; 2010. Anticipating vulnerability to climate change in dryland pastoral systems using dynamic systems models for the Kalahari.
    1. Ericksen PJ. Conceptualizing food systems for global environmental change research. Global Environmental Change. 2008;18:234–245.
    1. Ericksen PJ, de Leeuw J, Thornton PK, Notenbaert A, Cramer L, Jones PG, Herrero M. Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: what consequences for pastoralism? In: Catley A, Lind J, Scoones I, editors. Pastoralism and Development in Africa: Dynamic Change at the Margins. London: Earthscan; 2012. pp. 71–81.
    1. FAO. Food Balance Sheets: A Handbook. Rome, Italy: FAO; 2001. (Food and Agriculture Organization) of the United Nations.
    1. FAO. Climate-Smart Agriculture: Policies, Practices and Financing for Food Security, Adaptation and Mitigation. Rome, Italy: FAO; 2010. (Food and Agriculture Organization) of the United Nations.
    1. Few R. Health and climatic hazards: framing social research on vulnerability, response and adaptation. Global Environmental Change. 2007;17:281–295.
    1. Gornall J, Betts R, Burke E, Clark R, Camp J, Willett K, Wiltshire A. Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactionof the Royal Society B. 2010;365:2973–2989.
    1. Gupta J, Termeer C, Klostermann J, et al. The adaptive capacity wheel: a method to assess the inherent characteristics of institutions to enable the adaptive capacity of society. Environmental Science and Policy. 2010;13:459–471.
    1. Haines A, Kovats RS, Campbell-Lendrum D, Corvalan C. Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability and public health. Public Health. 2006;120:585–596.
    1. Hellin J, Shiferaw B, Cairns JE, et al. Climate change and food security in the developing world: potential of maize and wheat research to expand options for adaptation and mitigation. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics. 2012;4:311–321.
    1. Herrero M, Thornton PK, Notenbaert A, et al. Smart investments in sustainable food production: revisiting mixed crop-livestock systems. Science. 2010;327:822–825.
    1. Herrero M, Havlík P, Valin H, et al. Global livestock systems: biomass use, production, feed efficiencies and greenhouse gas emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United states of America. 2013;110:20888–20893.
    1. Hlavinka P, Trnka M, Semeradova D, Dubrovsky M, Zalud Z, Mozny M. Effect of drought on yield variability of key crops in Czech Republic. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2009;149:431–442.
    1. Hurkman WJ, Vensel WH, Tanaka CK, Whitehead L, Altenbach SB. Effect of high temperature on albumin and globulin accumulation in the endosperm proteome of the developing wheat grain. Journal of Cereal Science. 2009;49:12–23.
    1. IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; summary for policy makers; 2007. Available at: (accessed 3 November 2012)
    1. IPCC. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. In: CB Field, V Barros, TF Stocker, et al., editors. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2012.
    1. Jones PG, Thornton PK. Croppers to livestock keepers: livelihood transitions to 2050 in Africa due to climate change. Environmental Science and Policy. 2009;12:427–437.
    1. Jones PG, Thornton PK. Generating downscaled weather data from a suite of climate models for agricultural modelling applications. Agricultural Systems. 2013;114:1–5.
    1. Lenton TM. Early warning of climate tipping points. Nature Climate Change. 2011;1:201–209.
    1. Lipper L. FAO/OECD. Paris: Expert Meeting on Greening the Economy with Agriculture; 2011. Stability of food security in a green economy environment; pp. 5–7. September 2011. Working Document 3.
    1. Lloret F, Escudero A, Iriondo JM, Martinez-Vilalta J, Valladares F. Extreme climatic events and vegetation: the role of stabilizing processes. Global Change Biology. 2012;18:797–805.
    1. Lloyd SJ, Kovats RS, Chalabi Z. Climate change, crop yields and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impacts of climate scenarios on child undernutrition. Environmental Health Perspectives. 2011;119:1817–1823.
    1. Lobell DB, Bänziger M, Magorokosho C, Vivek B. Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials. Nature Climate Change. 2011;1:42–45.
    1. Maidment RI, Grimes DIF, Allan RP, Greatrex H, Rojas O, Leo O. Evaluation of satellite-based and model re-analysis rainfall estimates for Uganda. Metrological Applications. 2013;20:308–317.
    1. Martin V, Chevalier V, Ceccato P, et al. The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift valley fever. Revue Scientifique et Technique, Office International des Epizooties. 2008;27:413–426.
    1. McMichael AJ, Kovats RS. Climate change and climate variability: adaptations to reduce adverse health impacts. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 2000;61:49–64.
    1. McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S. Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet. 2006;367:859–869.
    1. Meehl GA, Goddard L, Boer G, et al. Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2013 e-View. doi: .
    1. Mills E. Insurance in a climate of change. Science. 2005;309:1040–1044.
    1. Misselhorn A, Eakin H, Devereux S, Drimie S, Msangi S, Simelton E, Stafford Smith M. Vulnerability to what? chapter seven. In: Ingram JSI, Ericksen PJ, Liverman DM, editors. Food Security and Global Environmental Change. London: Earthscan; 2010.
    1. Mohammed AR, Tarpley L. High nighttime temperatures affect rice productivity through altered pollen germination and spikelet fertility. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2009;149:999–1008.
    1. Munich Re. TOPICS GEO, Natural Catastrophes 2010, Analyses, Assessments, Positions. Munich, Germany: Munich Re; 2011.
    1. Ncube M, Zikhali P, Musango JK. The impact of climate variability on water and energy demand: the case of South African local governments. Water and Environment Journal. 2012;27:29–41.
    1. Nelson GC. Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation. Washington DC, USA: International Food Policy Research Institute; 2009.
    1. Nielsen JO, Reenberg A. Temporality and the problem with singling out climate as a current driver of change in a small West African village. Journal of Arid Environments. 2010;74:464–474.
    1. NRC. Effect of Environment on Nutrient Requirements of Domestic Animals. Washington DC: Subcommittee on Environmental Stress, National Academy Press; 1981.
    1. O'Brien K. Global environmental change II: from adaptation to deliberate transformation. Progress in Human Geography. 2012;36:667–676.
    1. O'Brien K, Eriksen S, Nygaard LP, Schjolden A. Why different interpretations of vulnerability matter in climate change discourses. Climate Policy. 2007;7:73–88.
    1. Porter JR, Semenov MA. Crop responses to climatic variation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 2005;360:2021–2035.
    1. Raleigh C, Jordan L. Climate change and migration: emerging patterns in the developing world. In: Mearns R, Norton A, editors. Chapter 4 in “Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming World”. Washington DC, USA: World Bank; 2010. pp. 103–131.
    1. Ramirez-Villegas J, Challinor AC, Thornton PK, Jarvis A. Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impacts research. Environmental Research Letters. 2013;8:024018.
    1. Rao KPC, Ndegwa WG, Kizito K, Oyoo A. Climate variability and change: farmer perceptions and understanding of intra-seasonal variability in rainfall and associated risk in semi-arid Kenya. Experimental Agriculture. 2011;47:267–291.
    1. Rickards L. Critical Breaking Point: the effects of climate variability, change and other pressures on farm households. Report for the Birchip Cropping Group and the Sustainable Agriculture Initiative Platform Australia. 2012. Available at: (accessed 2 February 2013)
    1. Rockström J, Falkenmark M, Karlberg L, Hoff H, Rost S, Gerten D. Future water availability for global food production: the potential of green water for increasing resilience to global change. Water Resources Research. 2009;45:1–16.
    1. Rodríguez LC, Herrero M, Baltenweck I. Community-based interventions for the use and conservation of animal genetic resources: the case of indigenous scavenger chicken production in Benin. Tropical Animal Health Production. 2011;43:961–966.
    1. Rosegrant MW, Fernandez M, Sinha A. Looking into the future for agriculture and AKST (Agricultural Knowledge Science and Technology) In: McIntyre BD, Herren HR, Wakhungu J, Watson RT, et al., editors. Agriculture at a Crossroads. Washington DC, USA: Island Press; 2009. pp. 307–376.
    1. Rowhani P, Lobell DB, Linderman M, Ramankutty N. Climate variability and crop production in Tanzania. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2011;151:449–460.
    1. Skoufias E, Vinha K, Conroy HV. The impacts of climate variability on welfare in rural Mexico; Policy Research Working Paper 5555; Washington DC, USA: World Bank; 2011.
    1. Solano C, Bernués A, Rojas F, Joaquıń N, Fernandez W, Herrero M. Relationships between management intensity and structural and social variables in dairy and dual-purpose systems in Santa Cruz, Bolivia. Agricultural Systems. 2000;65:159–177.
    1. Speranza CI, Kiteme B, Ambenje P, Wiesmann U, Makali S. Indigenous knowledge related to climate variability and change: insights from droughts in semi-arid areas of former Makueni District, Kenya. Climatic Change. 2010;100:295–315.
    1. Tall A, Mason SJ, van Aalst M, Suarez P, Ait-Chellouche Y, Diallo AD, Braman L. Using seasonal climate forecasts to guide disaster management: the Red Cross experience during the 2008 West Africa floods. International Journal of Geophysics. 2012;2012:1–12.
    1. Thornton PK, Herrero M. The inter-linkages between rapid growth in livestock production, climate change, and the impacts on water resources, land use, and deforestation; World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 5178; Washington, DC, USA: World Bank; 2009.
    1. Thornton PK, Jones PG, Ericksen PJ, Challinor AJ. Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a four-plus degree world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Series A. 2011;369:117–136.
    1. Thornton PK, Lipper L, Baas S, et al. How does climate change alter agricultural strategies to support food security? 2013. Background paper for the conference “Food Security Futures: Research Priorities for the 21st Century”Dublin, 11-12 April 2013.
    1. Thurlow J, Dorosh P, Yu W. A stochastic simulation approach to estimating the economic impacts of climate change in Bangladesh. 2011. Working Paper No. 2011/86, United Nations University.
    1. Tirado MC, Crahay P, Hunnes D, Cohen M. Climate change and nutrition in Africa with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa. 2010. Avilable at: (accessed 4 February 2013)
    1. UNDESA. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World population prospects: the 2012 revision, medium variant. 2013. Online Available at: (accessed 20 April 2013)
    1. USDA. United States Department of Agriculture. Food Security Assessment, 2010-20; Report GFA-21; Washington DC, USA: Economic Research Service; 2010.
    1. Vermeulen SJ, Challinor AJ, Thornton PK, et al. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United states of America. 2013;110:8357–8362.
    1. Vervoort J, Thornton PK, Kristjanson P, et al. Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change. Global Environmental Change. 2014 (in press)
    1. Weaver CP, Lempert RJ, Brown C, Hall JA, Revell D, Sarewitz D. Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: the value and demands of robust decision frameworks. WIREs Clim Change. 2013;4:39–60.
    1. Willenbockel D. Extreme weather events and crop price spikes in a changing climate. Oxfam Research Reports. 2012. September 2012.
    1. Willock J, Deary IJ, Edwards-Jones G, et al. The role of attitudes and objectives in farmer decision making: business and environmentally-oriented behaviour in Scotland. Journal of Agricultural Economics. 1999;50:286–303.
    1. You L, Guo Z, Koo J, et al. Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) 2000 Version 3 Release 1. 2012. Available at: (accessed 10 February 2013)
    1. Ziervogel G, Opere A. Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in the agricultural sector. Ottawa, Canada: International Development Research Centre; 2010. Climate Change Adaptation in Africa learning paper series.

Source: PubMed

Спонсоры и соавторы

Заболевания

Медикаментозные вмешательства

Подписаться