Climate change, crop production and child under nutrition in Ethiopia; a longitudinal panel study

Seifu Hagos, Torleif Lunde, Damen H Mariam, Tassew Woldehanna, Bernt Lindtjørn, Seifu Hagos, Torleif Lunde, Damen H Mariam, Tassew Woldehanna, Bernt Lindtjørn

Abstract

Background: The amount and distribution of rainfall and temperature influences household food availability, thus increasing the risk of child under nutrition. However, few studies examined the local spatial variability and the impact of temperature and rainfall on child under nutrition at a smaller scale (resolution). We conducted this study to evaluate the effect of weather variables on child under nutrition and the variations in effects across the three agro ecologies of Ethiopia.

Methods: A longitudinal panel study was conducted. We used crop productions (cereals and oilseeds), livestock, monthly rainfall and temperature, and child under nutrition data for the period of 1996, 1998, 2000 and 2004. We applied panel regression fixed effects model.

Results: The study included 43 clusters (administrative zones) and 145 observations. We observed a spatio temporal variability of rainfall, stunting and underweight. We estimated that for a given zone, one standard deviation increase in rainfall leads to 0.242 standard deviations increase in moderate stunting. Additionally, a one standard deviation increase temperature leads to 0.216 standard deviations decrease in moderate stunting. However, wasting was found to be poorly related with rainfall and temperature. But severe wasting showed a positive relationship with the quadratic term of rainfall.

Conclusions: We conclude that rainfall and temperature are partly predicting the variation in child stunting and underweight. Models vary in predicting stunting and underweight across the three agro ecologic zones. This could indicate that a single model for the three agro ecologies may not be not applicable.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Choropleth maps showing spatial distribution of rainfall, per capita crop availability and under nutrition for the study locations, Ethiopia,1996-2004.

References

    1. Taye A, Mariam DH, Murray V. Interim report: review of evidence of the health impact of famine in Ethiopia. Perspect Public Health. 2010;130:222–226. doi: 10.1177/1757913910379197.
    1. Kloss H, Lindtjorn B. Malnutrition during recent famines in Ethiopia. Northeast Afr Stud. 1994;1:121–136. doi: 10.1353/nas.1994.0000.
    1. Haile M. Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2005;360:2169–2182. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1746.
    1. Campbell-Lendrum D, Woodruff R. Comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change. Environ Health Perspect. 2006;114:1935–1941.
    1. Parrya ML, Rosenzweigb C, Iglesiasc A, Livermored M, Fischere G. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang. 2004;14:53–67. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008.
    1. Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science. 2011;333:616–620. doi: 10.1126/science.1204531.
    1. Confalonieri U, Menne B, Akhtar R, Ebi KL, Hauengue M, Kovats RS, Revich B, Woodward A. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 2007. Human health; pp. 391–431.
    1. Central Statistical Agency [Ethiopia] and ORC Macro . Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2000. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Calverton, Maryland, USA: Central Statistical Agency and ORC Macro; 2001.
    1. Central Statistical Agency [Ethiopia] and ORC Macro . Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2005. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Calverton, Maryland, USA: Central Statistical Agency and ORC Macro; 2006.
    1. Central Statistical Agency [Ethiopia] aII . Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2011. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Calverton, Maryland, USA: Central Statistical Agency and ORC Macro; 2012.
    1. Stevens GA, Finucane MM, Paciorek CJ, Flaxman SR, White RA, Donner AJ, Ezzati M. Trends in mild, moderate, and severe stunting and underweight, and progress towards MDG 1 in 141 developing countries: a systematic analysis of population representative data. Lancet. 2012;380:824–834. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60647-3.
    1. Hammond L, Maxwell D. The Ethiopian crisis of 1999–2000: lessons learned, questions unanswered. Disasters. 2002;26:262–279. doi: 10.1111/1467-7717.00204.
    1. Bernstein AS, Myers SS. Climate change and children’s health. Curr Opin Pediatr. 2011;23:221–226. doi: 10.1097/MOP.0b013e3283444c89.
    1. Ebi KL, Paulson JA. Climate change and children. Pediatr Clin North Am. 2007;54:213–226. doi: 10.1016/j.pcl.2007.01.004.
    1. Ebi KL, Paulson JA. Climate change and child health in the United States. Curr Probl Pediatr Adolesc Health Care. 2010;40:2–18. doi: 10.1016/j.cppeds.2009.12.001.
    1. Etzel RA. Climate change and child health in the United States: foreword. Curr Probl Pediatr Adolesc Health Care. 2010;40:1. doi: 10.1016/j.cppeds.2009.12.002.
    1. McCartney PR. Climate change and child health. MCN Am J Matern Child Nurs. 2007;32:255. doi: 10.1097/01.NMC.0000281968.30658.4f.
    1. Seal A, Vasudevan C. Climate change and child health. Arch Dis Child. 2011;96:1162–1166. doi: 10.1136/adc.2010.186213.
    1. Jankowskaa MM, Lopez-Carrb D, Funkc C, Husakd GJ, Chafee ZA. Climate change and human health: Spatial modeling of water availability, malnutrition, and livelihoods in Mali, Africa. Appl Geogr. 2011;33:4–15. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.08.009.
    1. Kumar HR, Venkaiah K, Arlappa N, Kumar S, Brahmam GNV, Vijayaraghavan K. Diet and Nutritional Situation of the Population in the Severely Drought Affected Areas of Gujarat. J Hum Ecol. 2005;18(4):319–326.
    1. Lloyd SJ, Kovats RS, Chalabi Z. Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition. Environ Health Perspect. 2011;119:1817–1823. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1003311.
    1. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon W-T, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P. Regional Climate Projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL, editors. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2007.
    1. Thornton PK, Jones PG, Owiyo TM, Kruska RL, Herero M, Kristjanson P, Notenbaert A, Bekele N, Omolo A. Report to the Department for International Development. Nairobi: ILRI; 2006. Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa; p. 200.
    1. Funk C, Dettinger MD, Michaelsen JC, Verdin JP, Brown ME, Barlow M, Hoell A. Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008;105:11081–11086. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0708196105.
    1. Xun WW, Khan AE, Michael E, Vineis P. Climate change epidemiology: methodological challenges. Int J Public Health. 2010;55:85–96. doi: 10.1007/s00038-009-0091-1.
    1. Ebi KL. Healthy people 2100: modeling population health impacts of climate change. Clim Change. 2008;88:5–19. doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9233-0.
    1. UNICEF . Strategy for Improved Nutrition of Children and Women in Developing Countries: A UNICEF Policy Review. 1990. pp. 5–36.
Pre-publication history
    1. The pre-publication history for this paper can be accessed here:

Source: PubMed

Спонсоры и соавторы

Заболевания

Медикаментозные вмешательства

Подписаться