Trend in obesity prevalence in European adult cohort populations during follow-up since 1996 and their predictions to 2015

Anne von Ruesten, Annika Steffen, Anna Floegel, Daphne L van der A, Giovanna Masala, Anne Tjønneland, Jytte Halkjaer, Domenico Palli, Nicholas J Wareham, Ruth J F Loos, Thorkild I A Sørensen, Heiner Boeing, Anne von Ruesten, Annika Steffen, Anna Floegel, Daphne L van der A, Giovanna Masala, Anne Tjønneland, Jytte Halkjaer, Domenico Palli, Nicholas J Wareham, Ruth J F Loos, Thorkild I A Sørensen, Heiner Boeing

Abstract

Objective: To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations.

Methods: Data of 97,942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as "Diogenes cohort" in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction.

Results: During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R² = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R² = 0.99).

Conclusion: Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower.

Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1. Association of obesity prevalence and…
Figure 1. Association of obesity prevalence and age among men of theDiogenes cohort.
BMI values of individuals of the total Diogenes cohort used for presenting obesity prevalence depending on the age (only prevalence estimates with at least 100 observations per age were considered for the graph).
Figure 2. Association of obesity prevalence and…
Figure 2. Association of obesity prevalence and age among women of the Diogenes cohort.
BMI values of individuals of the total Diogenes cohort used for presenting obesity prevalence depending on the age (only prevalence estimates with at least 100 observations per age were considered for the graph).
Figure 3. Obesity trends in EPIC-Potsdam (males).
Figure 3. Obesity trends in EPIC-Potsdam (males).
_____________  =  linear model using five observation points. __ __ __ __ __  =  leveling off model using five observation points.
Figure 4. Obesity trends in EPIC-Potsdam (females).
Figure 4. Obesity trends in EPIC-Potsdam (females).
_____________  =  linear model using five observation points. __ __ __ __ __  =  leveling off model using five observation points.

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