COVID-19 herd immunity: where are we?

Arnaud Fontanet, Simon Cauchemez, Arnaud Fontanet, Simon Cauchemez

Abstract

Herd immunity is a key concept for epidemic control. It states that only a proportion of a population needs to be immune (through overcoming natural infection or through vaccination) to an infectious agent for it to stop generating large outbreaks. A key question in the current COVID-19 pandemic is how and when herd immunity can be achieved and at what cost.

Conflict of interest statement

A.F. and S.C. are members of the COVID-19 Scientific Council advising the French Ministry of Health.

References

    1. Salje H, et al. Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Science. 2020;369:208–211. doi: 10.1126/science.abc3517.
    1. Britton T, Ball F, Trapman P. A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Science. 2020;369:846–849. doi: 10.1126/science.abc6810.
    1. Goldstein E, Lipsitch M, Cevik M. On the effect of age on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in households, schools and the community. medRxiv. 2020 doi: 10.1101/2020.07.19.20157362.
    1. Byambasuren O, et al. Estimating the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections: systematic review. medRxiv. 2020 doi: 10.1101/2020.07.13.20153163.
    1. Flaxman S, et al. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature. 2020;584:257–261. doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7.
    1. Sekine T, et al. Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19. Cell. 2020 doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2020.08.017.
    1. Sette A, Crotty S. Pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2: the knowns and unknowns. Nat. Rev. Immunol. 2020;20:457–458. doi: 10.1038/s41577-020-0389-z.
    1. Sermet-Gaudelus I, et al. Prior infection by seasonal coronaviruses does not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children. medRxiv. 2020 doi: 10.1101/2020.06.29.20142596.
    1. Service de santé des armées. Investigation de l’épidémie de COVID-19 au sein du Groupe Aéronaval. Service de santé des armées (2020).
    1. Miller MA, Viboud C, Balinska M, Simonsen S. The signature features of influenza pandemics — implications for policy. N. Engl. J. Med. 2009;360:2595–2598. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp0903906.

Source: PubMed

3
Iratkozz fel