Increasing incidence of malaria in children despite insecticide-treated bed nets and prompt anti-malarial therapy in Tororo, Uganda

Prasanna Jagannathan, Mary K Muhindo, Abel Kakuru, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, Bryan Greenhouse, Jordan Tappero, Philip J Rosenthal, Frank Kaharuza, Moses R Kamya, Grant Dorsey, Prasanna Jagannathan, Mary K Muhindo, Abel Kakuru, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, Bryan Greenhouse, Jordan Tappero, Philip J Rosenthal, Frank Kaharuza, Moses R Kamya, Grant Dorsey

Abstract

Background: The burden of malaria has decreased in parts of Africa following the scaling up of control interventions. However, similar data are limited from high transmission settings.

Methods: A cohort of 100 children, aged six weeks to 10 months of age, were enrolled in an area of high malaria transmission intensity and followed through 48 months of age. Children were given a long-lasting insecticide-treated bed net (LLIN) at enrolment and received all care, including monthly blood smears and treatment with artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for uncomplicated malaria, at a dedicated clinic. The incidence of malaria was estimated by passive surveillance and associations between malaria incidence and age, calendar time and season were measured using generalized estimating equations.

Results: Reported compliance with LLINs was 98% based on monthly routine evaluations. A total of 1,633 episodes of malaria were observed, with a median incidence of 5.3 per person-year (PPY). There were only six cases of complicated malaria, all single convulsions. Malaria incidence peaked at 6.5 PPY at 23 months of age before declining to 3.5 PPY at 48 months. After adjusting for age and season, the risk of malaria increased by 52% from 2008 to 2011 (RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.10-2.09). Asymptomatic parasitaemia was uncommon (monthly prevalence <10%) and rarely observed prior to 24 months of age.

Conclusions: In Tororo, despite provision of LLINs and prompt treatment with ACT, the incidence of malaria is very high and appears to be rising. Additional malaria control interventions in high transmission settings are likely needed.

Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials Identifier NCT00527800.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Predictors of malaria incidence - Malaria incidence by season. Predictors of malaria incidence visualized using a generalized additive regression model with smoothing splines. The model included season, calendar date, and age. Standard errors are indicated by shaded areas and were generated by bootstrapping with 1,000 replicates. Absolute incidence values for each of the three variables were calculated using median values for the other two variables.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Predictors of malaria incidence - Malaria incidence by calendar date. Predictors of malaria incidence visualized using a generalized additive regression model with smoothing splines (see details Figure 1).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Predictors of malaria incidence - Malaria incidence by age. Predictors of malaria incidence visualized using a generalized additive regression model with smoothing splines (see details Figure 1).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Prevalence of asymptomatic parasitaemia. Prevalence of asymptomatic parasitaemia by age modelled by generalized additive regression. Standard error is indicated by the shaded area and was generated by bootstrapping with 1,000 replicates.

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Source: PubMed

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