Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

GBD 2016 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators

Abstract

Background: As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.

Methods: We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

Findings: Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228).

Interpretation: The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Figures

**Figure 1**
Leading 30 Level 4 causes of global prevalence (A), incidence (B), and YLDs (C), for 1990, 2006, and 2016, with mean percentage change of counts, and all-age and age-standardised rates Causes are connected by arrows between time periods; solid lines are increases and dashed lines are decreases. For the time period 1990–2006 and for 2006–16, three measures of change are shown: percentage change of counts, percentage change in the all-age rate, and percentage change in the age-standardised rate. Statistically significant changes are shown in bold. Solid lines are increases in rank and dashed lines are decreases in rank. YLDs=years lived with disability. G6PD=glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency. UTI=urinary tract infection. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

**Figure 2**
Leading Level 4 causes of age-standardised YLD rates by country for males (A) and females (B) in 2016 ATG=Antigua and Barbuda. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. FSM=Federated States of Micronesia. LCA=Saint Lucia. Marshall Isl=Marshall Islands. Solomon Isl=Solomon Islands. TLS=Timor-Leste. TTO=Trinidad and Tobago. VCT=Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. YLDs=years lived with disability.

**Figure 3**
Trends of age-standardised YLD rates per 100 000 and total YLDs from 1990 to 2016, by GBD Level 1 causes, by SDI quintile SDI=Socio-demographic Index. YLDs=years lived with disability. Shaded areas show 95% uncertainty intervals.

**Figure 4**
Global YLDs for 21 Level 2 causes by 23 GBD age groups for both sexes combined in 1990 and 2016 Composition of Level 2 causes of disability globally for males and females combined by age group showing difference in composition between 1990 and 2016. Number of total YLDs due to Level 2 causes is indicated by height of bar; causes are colour coded to highlight the relative number of total YLDs due to a specific cause. YLDs=years lived with disability.

**Figure 5**
Sex difference in global YLD rates per 100 000 for 21 Level 2 causes by age, 2016 YLDs=years lived with disability.

**Figure 6**
Relationship of global age-standardised YLD rates per 100 000 in 2016 and the annualised rate of change in age-standardised YLD rates for each Level 3 cause, 2006-2016 For both sexes combined. Age-standardized YLD rates are represented on a logarithmic scale on the x-axis. Causes for which the annualised rate of change is not significant are listed in italics. Level 3 causes related to shocks (forces of nature, conflict and terrorism, and executions and police conflict) are excluded. Not shown in figure (YLD, ARC): Diphtheria: (0.0003, −0.09), Measles: (0.3, −0.1), Afr Tryp: (0.03, −0.1), Echino: (1, −0.06), LF: (15.8, −0.06), Dengue: (13.2, 0.05), Rabies: (0.0009, −0.08), *Ebola:* (0.002, 0.3), Zika: (0.06, 0.6), GWD: (0.00001, −0.6). A Fib=Atrial fibrillation and flutter. ADHD=Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. AGN=Acute glomerulonephritis. ALS=Motor neuron disease. ASD=Autistic spectrum disorders. Afr Tryp=African trypanosomiasis. Alcohol=Alcohol use disorders. Alzheimer's=Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. Animal=Animal contact. Anxiety=Anxiety disorders. Appendicit=Appendicitis. Asthma=Asthma. Back + neck=Low back and neck pain. Bipolar=Bipolar disorder. Bladder C=Bladder cancer. Brain C=Brain and nervous system cancer. Breast C=Breast cancer. CKD=Chronic kidney disease. CMP=Cardiomyopathy and myocarditis. COPD=Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Cervix C=Cervical cancer. Chagas=Chagas disease. Cirr Alc=Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to alcohol use. Cirr HepB=Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to hepatitis B. Cirr HepC=Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to hepatitis C. Colorect C=Colon and rectum cancer. Comp Abort=Maternal abortion, miscarriage, and ectopic pregnancy. Conduct=Conduct disorder. Congenital=Congenital birth defects. Cysticer=Cysticercosis. Dengue=Dengue. Depression=Depressive disorders. Diabetes=Diabetes mellitus. Diarrhoea=Diarrhoeal diseases. Diphtheria=Diphtheria. Drown=Drowning. Drugs=Drug use disorders. Eating=Eating disorders. Ebola=Ebola virus disease. Echino=Cystic echinococcosis. Encepha=Encephalitis. Endocar=Endocarditis. Endocrine=Endocrine, metabolic, blood, and immune disorders. Epilepsy=Epilepsy. F Body=Foreign body. FB Trema=Food-borne trematodiases. Falls=Falls. Fire=Fire, heat, and hot substances. GWD=Guinea worm disease. Gall Bile=Gallbladder and biliary diseases. Gallblad C=Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer. Gastritis=Gastritis and duodenitis. Gout=Gout. Gyne=Gynaecological diseases. HIV=HIV/AIDS. HTN HD=Hypertensive heart disease. Haemog=Haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias. Heat + cold=Environmental heat and cold exposure. Hep=Hepatitis. Hernia=Inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernia. Hodgkin's=Hodgkin's lymphoma. IBD=Inflammatory bowel disease. ID=Idiopathic developmental intellectual disability. IHD=Ischaemic heart disease. ILD=Interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis. Ileus=Paralytic ileus and intestinal obstruction. Intest Inf=Intestinal infectious diseases. Iodine=Iodine deficiency. Iron=Iron-deficiency anaemia. Kidney C=Kidney cancer. LF=Lymphatic filariasis. LRI=Lower respiratory infections. Larynx C=Larynx cancer. Leish=Leishmaniasis. Leprosy=Leprosy. Leukaemia=Leukaemia. Lip Oral C=Lip and oral cavity cancer. Liver C=Liver cancer. Lung C=Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer. Lymphoma=Non-Hodgkin lymphoma. MS=Multiple sclerosis. Malaria=Malaria. Mat HTN=Maternal hypertensive disorders. Mat Haem=Maternal haemorrhage. Mat Sepsis=Maternal sepsis and other maternal infections. Measles=Measles. Mech=Exposure to mechanical forces. Med Treat=Adverse effects of medical treatment. Melanoma=Malignant skin melanoma. Meningitis=Meningitis. Mesothel=Mesothelioma. Migraine=Migraine. Myeloma=Multiple myeloma. NN Enceph=Neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. NN Haemol=Haemolytic disease and other neonatal jaundice. NN Preterm=Neonatal preterm birth complications. NN Sepsis=Neonatal sepsis and other neonatal infections. Naesoph C=Naesopharynx cancer. Nematode=Intestinal nematode infections. Obst Labour=Maternal obstructed labour and uterine rupture. Oesophag C=Oesophageal cancer. Oncho=Onchocerciasis. Oral=Oral disorders. Osteoarth=Osteoarthritis. Oth Cardio=Other cardiovascular and circulatory diseases. Oth Cirr=Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to other causes. Oth Digest=Other digestive diseases. Oth Inf=Other infectious diseases. Oth MSK=Other musculoskeletal disorders. Oth Mat=Other maternal disorders. Oth Ment=Other mental and substance use disorders. Oth NN=Other neonatal disorders. Oth NTD=Other neglected tropical diseases. Oth Neopla=Other neoplasms. Oth Neuro=Other neurological disorders. Oth Nutr=Other nutritional deficiencies. Oth Phar C=Other pharynx cancer. Oth Resp=Other chronic respiratory diseases. Oth Trans=Other transport injuries. Oth Unint=Other unintentional injuries. Otitis=Otitis media. Ovary C=Ovarian cancer. PAD=Peripheral artery disease. PEM=Protein-energy malnutrition. PUD=Peptic ulcer disease. Pancreas C=Pancreatic cancer. Pancreatit=Pancreatitis. Parkinson's=Parkinson's disease. Pneumocon=Pneumoconiosis. Poison=Poisonings. Prostate C=Prostate cancer. RHD=Rheumatic heart disease. Rabies=Rabies. Rheu Arth=Rheumatoid arthritis. Road Inj=Road injuries. STD=Sexually transmitted diseases excluding HIV. Schisto=Schistosomiasis. Schiz=Schizophrenia. Self Harm=Self-harm. Sense=Sense organ diseases. Skin=Skin and subcutaneous diseases. Skin C=Non-melanoma skin cancer. Stomach C=Stomach cancer. Stroke=Cerebrovascular disease. TB=Tuberculosis. Tens Head=Tension-type headache. Testis C=Testicular cancer. Tetanus=Tetanus. Thyroid C=Thyroid cancer. Trachoma=Trachoma. URI=Upper respiratory infections. Urinary=Urinary diseases and male infertility. Uterus C=Uterine cancer. Varicella=Varicella and herpes zoster. Vasc Intest=Vascular intestinal disorders. Violence=Interpersonal violence. Vit A=Vitamin A deficiency. Whooping=Whooping cough. Yellow Fev=Yellow fever. YLD=years lived with disability. Zika=Zika virus disease.

**Figure 7**
Leading ten causes of YLDs with ratio of observed YLDs to YLDs expected on the basis of SDI in 2016, by location Values shown in brackets represent the ratio of observed YLDs to predicted YLDs on the basis of SDI, rounded to two digits. Acne=Acne vulgaris. Alcohol=Alcohol use disorders. Alzheimer's=Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. Anxiety=Anxiety disorders. Asthma=Asthma. Back pain=Low back pain. COPD=Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Conflict=Conflict and terrorism. Cut Leish=Cutaneous and mucocutaneous leishmaniasis. Dermatitis=Dermatitis. Diabetes=Diabetes mellitus. Diarrhoea=Diarrhoeal diseases. Edentul=Edentulism and severe tooth loss. Epilepsy=Epilepsy. Falls=Falls. Hearing=Age-related and other hearing loss. Hookworm=Hookworm disease. IHD=Ischaemic heart disease. Iodine=Iodine deficiency. Iron=Iron-deficiency anaemia. Isch Stroke=Ischaemic stroke. LF=Lymphatic filariasis. MDD=Major depressive disorder. Malaria=Malaria. Migraine=Migraine. Neck Pain=Neck pain. Oncho=Onchocerciasis. Opioids=Opioid use disorders. Osteoarth=Osteoarthritis. Oth Cardio=Other cardiovascular and circulatory diseases. Oth Cong=Other congenital anomalies. Oth HIV=HIV/AIDS resulting in other diseases. Oth MSK=Other musculoskeletal disorders. PEM=Protein-energy malnutrition. Refraction=Refraction and accommodation disorders. SDI=Socio-demographic Index. Schisto=Schistosomiasis. Schiz=Schizophrenia. YLD=Years lived with disability.

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Source: PubMed

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Abstract

Figures

References

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