Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020
Peng Wu, Xinxin Hao, Eric H Y Lau, Jessica Y Wong, Kathy S M Leung, Joseph T Wu, Benjamin J Cowling, Gabriel M Leung, Peng Wu, Xinxin Hao, Eric H Y Lau, Jessica Y Wong, Kathy S M Leung, Joseph T Wu, Benjamin J Cowling, Gabriel M Leung
Abstract
A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causing severe acute respiratory disease emerged recently in Wuhan, China. Information on reported cases strongly indicates human-to-human spread, and the most recent information is increasingly indicative of sustained human-to-human transmission. While the overall severity profile among cases may change as more mild cases are identified, we estimate a risk of fatality among hospitalised cases at 14% (95% confidence interval: 3.9-32%).
Keywords: Coronavirus; public health.
Conflict of interest statement
Conflict of interest: BJC reports honoraria from Sanofi Pasteur and Roche not related to this work. The authors report no other potential conflicts of interest.
Figures
References
- Su S, Wong G, Shi W, Liu J, Lai ACK, Zhou J, et al. Epidemiology, Genetic Recombination, and Pathogenesis of Coronaviruses. Trends Microbiol. 2016;24(6):490-502. 10.1016/j.tim.2016.03.003
- Fan Y, Zhao K, Shi ZL, Zhou P. Bat Coronaviruses in China. Viruses. 2019;11(3):E210. 10.3390/v11030210
- Hui DS. Epidemic and Emerging Coronaviruses (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). Clin Chest Med. 2017;38(1):71-86. 10.1016/j.ccm.2016.11.007
- Guan Y, Peiris JS, Zheng B, Poon LL, Chan KH, Zeng FY, et al. Molecular epidemiology of the novel coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome. Lancet. 2004;363(9403):99-104. 10.1016/S0140-6736(03)15259-2
- World Health Organization Regional Office for the (WHO/Eastern Mediterranean). MERS Situation Update. Cairo: WHO/Eastern Mediterranean; Nov2019. [Accessed 11 Jan 2020]. Available from:
- Cowling BJ, Park M, Fang VJ, Wu P, Leung GM, Wu JT. Preliminary epidemiological assessment of MERS-CoV outbreak in South Korea, May to June 2015. Euro Surveill. 2015;20(25):7-13. 10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.25.21163
- Kim KH, Tandi TE, Choi JW, Moon JM, Kim MS. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, 2015: epidemiology, characteristics and public health implications. J Hosp Infect. 2017;95(2):207-13. 10.1016/j.jhin.2016.10.008
- Wong G, Liu W, Liu Y, Zhou B, Bi Y, Gao GF. MERS, SARS, and Ebola: The Role of Super-Spreaders in Infectious Disease. Cell Host Microbe. 2015;18(4):398-401. 10.1016/j.chom.2015.09.013
- Kucharski AJ, Althaus CL. The role of superspreading in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) transmission. Euro Surveill. 2015;20(25):14-8. 10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.25.21167
- Amer H, Alqahtani AS, Alzoman H, Aljerian N, Memish ZA. Unusual presentation of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus leading to a large outbreak in Riyadh during 2017. Am J Infect Control. 2018;46(9):1022-5. 10.1016/j.ajic.2018.02.023
- World Health Organization (WHO). WHO Statement Regarding Cluster of Pneumonia Cases in Wuhan, China. Beijing: WHO; 9 Jan 2020. [Accessed 11 Jan 2020].
- Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. [Update on outbreak of pneumonia cases in Wuhan]. 31 Dec 2019. [Accessed 13 Jan 2020]. Chinese. Available from:
- Beijing News. [Southern China Seafood Market linked to unexplained pneumonia outbreak]. 2 Jan 2020. [Accessed 13 Jan 2020]. Chinese. Available from:
- Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. [Report on unexplained viral pneumonia]. 5 Jan 2020. [Accessed 21 Jan 2020]. Chinese. Available from:
- Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. [Report on unexplained viral pneumonia]. 11 Jan 2020. [Accessed 21 Jan 2020]. Chinese. Available from:
- Cheung J. Ill husband and wife add to Wuhan riddle. Hong Kong; The Standard; 16 Jan 2020. [Accessed 20 Jan 2020]. Available from:
- Cauchemez S, Epperson S, Biggerstaff M, Swerdlow D, Finelli L, Ferguson NM. Using routine surveillance data to estimate the epidemic potential of emerging zoonoses: application to the emergence of US swine origin influenza A H3N2v virus. PLoS Med. 2013;10(3):e1001399. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001399
- Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. [Questions and answers on pneumonia due to novel coronavirus infection]. 14 Jan 2020. [Accessed 20 Jan 2020]. Chinese. Available from:
- Cauchemez S, Van Kerkhove MD, Riley S, Donnelly CA, Fraser C, Ferguson NM. Transmission scenarios for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and how to tell them apart. Euro Surveill. 2013;18(24):20503.
- World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific (WHO/Pacific). World Health Organization Western Pacific Twitter Feed. Manila: WHO/Pacific; 8:35 PM 20 Jan 2020. Available from:
- Yu H, Cowling BJ, Feng L, Lau EH, Liao Q, Tsang TK, et al. Human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an assessment of clinical severity. Lancet. 2013;382(9887):138-45. 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61207-6
- Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Cox DR, Griffin JT, Fraser C, Lam TH, et al. Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease. Am J Epidemiol. 2005;162(5):479-86. 10.1093/aje/kwi230
- Cowling BJ, Muller MP, Wong IO, Ho LM, Lo SV, Tsang T, et al. Clinical prognostic rules for severe acute respiratory syndrome in low- and high-resource settings. Arch Intern Med. 2006;166(14):1505-11. 10.1001/archinte.166.14.1505
- Lau EH, Hsiung CA, Cowling BJ, Chen CH, Ho LM, Tsang T, et al. A comparative epidemiologic analysis of SARS in Hong Kong, Beijing and Taiwan. BMC Infect Dis. 2010;10(1):50. 10.1186/1471-2334-10-50
- Hui DS, Azhar EI, Kim YJ, Memish ZA, Oh MD, Zumla A. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: risk factors and determinants of primary, household, and nosocomial transmission. Lancet Infect Dis. 2018;18(8):e217-27. 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30127-0
- Leung GM, Hedley AJ, Ho LM, Chau P, Wong IO, Thach TQ, et al. The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patients. Ann Intern Med. 2004;141(9):662-73. 10.7326/0003-4819-141-9-200411020-00006
- Jewell NP, Lei X, Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Leung GM, Ho LM, et al. Non-parametric estimation of the case fatality ratio with competing risks data: an application to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). Stat Med. 2007;26(9):1982-98. 10.1002/sim.2691
- Chinese National Health Commission (NHC). [Experts answer reporters' questions on pneumonia outbreak of new coronavirus infection]. Beijing: NHC; 20 Jan 2020. [Accessed 20 Jan 2020]. Chinese
- Chinese National Health Commission (NHC). [Press conference in response to the outbreak of pneumonia caused by 2019-nCoV]. Beijing: NHC; 21 Jan 2020. [Accessed 21 Jan 2020]. Chinese. Available from:
- World Health Organization (WHO). Novel Coronavirus – Thailand (ex-China). Geneva: WHO: 14 Jan 2020. Available from:
- World Health Organization (WHO). Novel Coronavirus – Japan (ex-China). Geneva: WHO; 16 Jan 2020. Available from:
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). First Travel-related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States. Atlanta: CDC; 21 Jan 2020. Available from:
- Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Taiwan timely identifies first imported case of severe special infectious pneumonia from Wuhan, China through onboard quarantine; Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) raises travel notice level for Wuhan, China to Level 3: Warning. Taipei City: CDC; 21 Jan 2020. Available from: https://
Source: PubMed