Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020

Peng Wu, Xinxin Hao, Eric H Y Lau, Jessica Y Wong, Kathy S M Leung, Joseph T Wu, Benjamin J Cowling, Gabriel M Leung, Peng Wu, Xinxin Hao, Eric H Y Lau, Jessica Y Wong, Kathy S M Leung, Joseph T Wu, Benjamin J Cowling, Gabriel M Leung

Abstract

A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causing severe acute respiratory disease emerged recently in Wuhan, China. Information on reported cases strongly indicates human-to-human spread, and the most recent information is increasingly indicative of sustained human-to-human transmission. While the overall severity profile among cases may change as more mild cases are identified, we estimate a risk of fatality among hospitalised cases at 14% (95% confidence interval: 3.9-32%).

Keywords: Coronavirus; public health.

Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: BJC reports honoraria from Sanofi Pasteur and Roche not related to this work. The authors report no other potential conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Increase in laboratory-confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV infection over time, as at 21 January 2020
Figure 2
Figure 2
Temporal changes in estimated risk of death among laboratory-confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV admitted to hospitala, Wuhan, China, as at 21 January 2020

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Source: PubMed

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