Surgical Risk Following Anatomic Lung Resection in Thoracic Surgery: A Prediction Model Derived from a Spanish Multicenter Database
David Gómez de Antonio, Silvana Crowley Carrasco, Alejandra Romero Román, Ana Royuela, Álvaro Sánchez Calle, Carme Obiols Fornell, Sergi Call, Raúl Embún, Íñigo Royo, José Luis Recuero, Alberto Cabañero, Nicolás Moreno, Sergio Bolufer, Miguel Congregado, Marcelo F Jimenez, Borja Aguinagalde, Sergio Amor-Alonso, Miguel Jesús Arrarás, Ana Isabel Blanco Orozco, Marc Boada, Isabel Cal, Ángel Cilleruelo Ramos, Elena Fernández-Martín, Santiago García-Barajas, María Dolores García-Jiménez, Jose María García-Prim, José Alberto Garcia-Salcedo, Juan José Gelbenzu-Zazpe, Carlos Fernando Giraldo-Ospina, María Teresa Gómez Hernández, Jorge Hernández, Jennifer D Illana Wolf, Alberto Jáuregui Abularach, Unai Jiménez, Iker López Sanz, Néstor J Martínez-Hernández, Elisabeth Martínez-Téllez, Lucía Milla Collado, Roberto Mongil Poce, Francisco Javier Moradiellos-Díez, Ramón Moreno-Basalobre, Sergio B Moreno Merino, Florencio Quero-Valenzuela, María Elena Ramírez-Gil, Ricard Ramos-Izquierdo, Eduardo Rivo, Alberto Rodríguez-Fuster, Rafael Rojo-Marcos, David Sanchez-Lorente, Laura Sánchez Moreno, Carlos Simón, Juan Carlos Trujillo-Reyes, Cipriano López García, Juan José Fibla Alfara, Julio Sesma Romero, Florentino Hernando Trancho, David Gómez de Antonio, Silvana Crowley Carrasco, Alejandra Romero Román, Ana Royuela, Álvaro Sánchez Calle, Carme Obiols Fornell, Sergi Call, Raúl Embún, Íñigo Royo, José Luis Recuero, Alberto Cabañero, Nicolás Moreno, Sergio Bolufer, Miguel Congregado, Marcelo F Jimenez, Borja Aguinagalde, Sergio Amor-Alonso, Miguel Jesús Arrarás, Ana Isabel Blanco Orozco, Marc Boada, Isabel Cal, Ángel Cilleruelo Ramos, Elena Fernández-Martín, Santiago García-Barajas, María Dolores García-Jiménez, Jose María García-Prim, José Alberto Garcia-Salcedo, Juan José Gelbenzu-Zazpe, Carlos Fernando Giraldo-Ospina, María Teresa Gómez Hernández, Jorge Hernández, Jennifer D Illana Wolf, Alberto Jáuregui Abularach, Unai Jiménez, Iker López Sanz, Néstor J Martínez-Hernández, Elisabeth Martínez-Téllez, Lucía Milla Collado, Roberto Mongil Poce, Francisco Javier Moradiellos-Díez, Ramón Moreno-Basalobre, Sergio B Moreno Merino, Florencio Quero-Valenzuela, María Elena Ramírez-Gil, Ricard Ramos-Izquierdo, Eduardo Rivo, Alberto Rodríguez-Fuster, Rafael Rojo-Marcos, David Sanchez-Lorente, Laura Sánchez Moreno, Carlos Simón, Juan Carlos Trujillo-Reyes, Cipriano López García, Juan José Fibla Alfara, Julio Sesma Romero, Florentino Hernando Trancho
Abstract
Introduction: The aim of this study was to develop a surgical risk prediction model in patients undergoing anatomic lung resections from the registry of the Spanish Video-Assisted Thoracic Surgery Group (GEVATS).
Methods: Data were collected from 3,533 patients undergoing anatomic lung resection for any diagnosis between December 20, 2016 and March 20, 2018. We defined a combined outcome variable: death or Clavien Dindo grade IV complication at 90 days after surgery. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed by logistic regression. Internal validation of the model was performed using resampling techniques.
Results: The incidence of the outcome variable was 4.29% (95% CI 3.6-4.9). The variables remaining in the final logistic model were: age, sex, previous lung cancer resection, dyspnea (mMRC), right pneumonectomy, and ppo DLCO. The performance parameters of the model adjusted by resampling were: C-statistic 0.712 (95% CI 0.648-0.750), Brier score 0.042 and bootstrap shrinkage 0.854.
Conclusions: The risk prediction model obtained from the GEVATS database is a simple, valid, and reliable model that is a useful tool for establishing the risk of a patient undergoing anatomic lung resection.
Keywords: Anatomic lung resection; Cirugía mínimamente invasiva; Cirugía torácica; Minimally invasive surgery; Modelo predictivo de riesgo; Morbimortalidad posquirúrgica; Post-surgical morbidity and mortality; Predictive risk model; Resección pulmonar anatómica; Riesgo quirúrgico; Surgical risk; Thoracic surgery.
Copyright © 2021 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.
Source: PubMed