Clinical validation of the EndoPredict test in node-positive, chemotherapy-treated ER+/HER2- breast cancer patients: results from the GEICAM 9906 trial

Miguel Martin, Jan C Brase, Lourdes Calvo, Kristin Krappmann, Manuel Ruiz-Borrego, Karin Fisch, Amparo Ruiz, Karsten E Weber, Blanca Munarriz, Christoph Petry, Cesar A Rodriguez, Ralf Kronenwett, Carmen Crespo, Emilio Alba, Eva Carrasco, Maribel Casas, Rosalia Caballero, Alvaro Rodriguez-Lescure, Miguel Martin, Jan C Brase, Lourdes Calvo, Kristin Krappmann, Manuel Ruiz-Borrego, Karin Fisch, Amparo Ruiz, Karsten E Weber, Blanca Munarriz, Christoph Petry, Cesar A Rodriguez, Ralf Kronenwett, Carmen Crespo, Emilio Alba, Eva Carrasco, Maribel Casas, Rosalia Caballero, Alvaro Rodriguez-Lescure

Abstract

Introduction: EndoPredict (EP) is an RNA-based multigene test that predicts the likelihood of distant recurrence in patients with estrogen receptor-positive (ER+), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2-) breast cancer (BC) who are being treated with adjuvant endocrine therapy. Herein we report the prospective-retrospective clinical validation of EP in the node-positive, chemotherapy-treated, ER+/HER2- BC patients in the GEICAM 9906 trial.

Methods: The patients (N = 1,246) were treated either with six cycles of fluorouracil, epirubicin and cyclophosphamide (FEC) or with four cycles of FEC followed by eight weekly courses of paclitaxel (FEC-P), as well as with endocrine therapy if they had hormone receptor-positive disease. The patients were assigned to EP risk categories (low or high) according to prespecified cutoff levels. The primary endpoint in the clinical validation of EP was distant metastasis-free survival (MFS). Metastasis rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariate analysis was performed using Cox regression.

Results: The molecular EP score and the combined molecular and clinical EPclin score were successfully determined in 555 ER+/HER2- tumors from the 800 available samples in the GEICAM 9906 trial. On the basis of the EP, 25% of patients (n = 141) were classified as low risk. MFS was 93% in the low-risk group and 70% in the high-risk group (absolute risk reduction = 23%, hazard ratio (HR) = 4.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.5 to 9.5; P < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis showed that, in this ER+/HER2- cohort, EP results are an independent prognostic parameter after adjustment for age, grade, lymph node status, tumor size, treatment arm, ER and progesterone receptor (PR) status and proliferation index (Ki67). Using the predefined EPclin score, 13% of patients (n = 74) were assigned to the low-risk group, who had excellent outcomes and no distant recurrence events (absolute risk reduction vs high-risk group = 28%; P < 0.0001). Furthermore, EP was prognostic in premenopausal patients (HR = 6.7, 95% CI = 2.4 to 18.3; P = 0.0002) and postmenopausal patients (HR = 3.3, 95% CI = 1.3 to 8.5; P = 0.0109). There were no statistically significant differences in MFS between treatment arms (FEC vs FEC-P) in either the high- or low-risk groups. The interaction test results between the chemotherapy arm and the EP score were not significant.

Conclusions: EP is an independent prognostic parameter in node-positive, ER+/HER2- BC patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy followed by hormone therapy. EP did not predict a greater efficacy of FEC-P compared to FEC alone.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Kaplan-Meier metastasis-free survival curves for ER+/HER2− breast cancers. (A) Curves representing EndoPredict (EP) test results indicating estimated high and low risk of metastasis-free survival (MFS). The cutoff point was prespecified at 5. (B) Curves representing EPclin results indicating estimated high and low risk of MFS. The cutoff point was prespecified at 3.3. Numbers in parentheses indicate the 95% confidence intervals of the hazard ratios. ARR: Absolute risk reduction estimated at 10 years; ER+/HER2−: Estrogen receptor–positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–negative. The MFS in the EP score–based low-risk category was 93% vs 70% in the EP score–based high-risk group. The MFS in the EPclin-based low-risk category was 100% vs 72% in the EPclin score–based high-risk group.
Figure 2
Figure 2
C-index plot for clinicopathological parameters and EndoPredict test results between breast cancer patients with ER+/HER2− tumors. C-index estimates for different groupings of prognostic parameters are shown: ER + PR + Ki67, ER + PR + Ki67 + tumor size, ER + PR + Ki67 + tumor size + nodal status, all clinicopathological parameters (nodal status, tumor size, grade, treatment arm, and ER and PR status and Ki67 index), all clinicopathological parameters + EndoPredict (EP) score, and combined molecular and clinical EPclin. ER: Estrogen receptor; PR: Progesterone receptor. P-values indicate whether additional molecular parameters add significant prognostic information to clinical variables.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Kaplan-Meier metastasis-free survival curves for ER+/HER2− breast cancers. (A) Curves representing EndoPredict (EP) test results indicating estimated high and low risk of metastasis-free survival (MFS). The cutoff point for EP score–based risk stratification was prespecified at 5. For the premenopausal patients, MFS in the EP score–based low-risk category was 93% vs 67% in the EP score–based high-risk group. For the postmenopausal patients, MFS in the EP score–based low-risk category was 92% vs 74% in the EP score–based high-risk group. (B) Curves representing results based on the combined molecular and clinical EPclin indicating estimated high and low risk of MFS. The cutoff point for EPclin score–based risk stratification was prespecified at 3.3. In the EPclin premenopausal patients, MFS in the EPclin score–based low-risk group was 100% vs 70% in the EPclin score–based high-risk category. In the postmenopausal patients, MFS in the EPclin score–based low-risk category was 100% vs 76% in the EPclin score–based high-risk group. The samples included 300 premenopausal patients and 255 postmenopausal patients. Numbers in parentheses indicate the 95% confidence intervals of the hazard ratios. ARR: Absolute risk reduction estimated at 10 years.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Kaplan-Meier metastasis-free survival curves for ER+/HER2- breast cancer. Comparison of treatment arms (FEC vs. FEC-P) in (A) the EP low-risk group (n = 141) and (B) the EP high-risk group (n = 414). The cutoff point for EP was prespecified at 5. Numbers in parentheses indicate the 95% confidence intervals of the hazard ratios. FEC: fluorouracil, epirubicin and cyclophosphamide; FEC+P: fluorouracil, epirubicin and cyclophosphamide followed by eight weekly courses of paclitaxel.

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