Current and future burden of breast cancer: Global statistics for 2020 and 2040

Melina Arnold, Eileen Morgan, Harriet Rumgay, Allini Mafra, Deependra Singh, Mathieu Laversanne, Jerome Vignat, Julie R Gralow, Fatima Cardoso, Sabine Siesling, Isabelle Soerjomataram, Melina Arnold, Eileen Morgan, Harriet Rumgay, Allini Mafra, Deependra Singh, Mathieu Laversanne, Jerome Vignat, Julie R Gralow, Fatima Cardoso, Sabine Siesling, Isabelle Soerjomataram

Abstract

Background: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide, and its burden has been rising over the past decades. In this article, we examine and describe the global burden of breast cancer in 2020 and predictions for the year 2040.

Methods: Estimates of new female breast cancer cases and deaths in 2020 were abstracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 females by country, world region, and level of human development. Predicted cases and deaths were computed based on global demographic projections for the year 2040.

Results: Over 2.3 million new cases and 685,000 deaths from breast cancer occurred in 2020. Large geographic variation across countries and world regions exists, with incidence rates ranging from <40 per 100,000 females in some Asian and African countries, to over 80 per 100,000 in Australia/New Zealand, Northern America, and parts of Europe. Smaller geographical variation was observed for mortality; however, transitioning countries continue to carry a disproportionate share of breast cancer deaths relative to transitioned countries. By 2040, the burden from breast cancer is predicted to increase to over 3 million new cases and 1 million deaths every year because of population growth and ageing alone.

Conclusion: Breast cancer is the most common cancer worldwide and continues to have a large impact on the global number of cancer deaths. Global efforts are needed to counteract its growing burden, especially in transitioning countries where incidence is rising rapidly, and mortality rates remain high.

Keywords: Breast cancer; Global; Incidence; Mortality; Prediction.

Copyright © 2022 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Distribution of breast cancer cases and deaths by world area in 2020.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Age-standardized breast cancer incidence (top, blue) and mortality (bottom, red) rates per 100,000 females. Breast cancer cases and deaths by country. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Age-standardized breast cancer incidence (top, blue) and mortality (bottom, red) rates per 100,000 females by country and world region; countries with highest and lowest rates within region mentioned with their name; full country-level results are available at gco.iarc.fr. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Estimated number of breast cancer cases and deaths from 2020 to 2040, by level of Human Development Index (HDI).

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