Prediction of the need for emergency endoscopic treatment for upper gastrointestinal bleeding and new score model: a retrospective study

Yoshihiro Sasaki, Tomoko Abe, Norio Kawamura, Taisei Keitoku, Isamu Shibata, Shino Ohno, Keiichi Ono, Makoto Makishima, Yoshihiro Sasaki, Tomoko Abe, Norio Kawamura, Taisei Keitoku, Isamu Shibata, Shino Ohno, Keiichi Ono, Makoto Makishima

Abstract

Background: Gastrointestinal bleeding is one of the major gastrointestinal diseases. In this study, our objective was to compare Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), AIMS65 score, MAP score, Modified GBS, and Iino score as outcome measures for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. In addition, we extracted factors associated with hemostatic procedures including endoscopy, and proposed a new robust score model.

Methods: From January 2015 to December 2019, 675 patients with symptoms such as hematemesis who visited the National Hospital Organization Disaster Medical Center and underwent urgent upper endoscopy with diagnosis of suspected non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding were retrospectively reviewed. We evaluated the GBS, AIMS65 score, MAP score, Modified GBS, and Iino score, and assessed the outcomes of patients requiring hemostatic treatments at the subsequent emergency endoscopy. We performed logistic regression analysis of factors related to endoscopic hemostasis and upper gastrointestinal bleeding, created a new score model, and evaluated the prediction of hemostatic treatment and mortality in the new score and the existing scores.

Results: The factors associated with endoscopic treatment were hematemesis, heart rate, HB (hemoglobin), blood pressure, blood urea nitrogen (BUN). Based on these predictors and the partial regression coefficients, a new score named H3B2 (using the initial letters of hematemesis, heart rate, HB, blood pressure, and BUN) was generated. H3B2 score was slightly more discriminatory compared to GBS and Modified GBS (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC): 0.73 versus 0.721 and 0.7128, respectively) in predicting hemostatic treatment in emergency endoscopy. The H3B2 score also showed satisfactory prediction accuracy for subsequent deaths (AUROC: 0.6857. P < 0.001).

Conclusions: We proposed a new score, the H3B2 score, consisting of simple and objective indices in cases of suspected upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The H3B2 score is useful in identifying high-risk patients with suspected upper gastrointestinal bleeding who require urgent hemostatic treatment including emergency endoscopy.

Keywords: Bleeding; Blood pressure; Endoscopy; Hemoglobin; Urea.

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

© 2022. The Author(s).

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Patient flow diagram
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Number of patients with and without hemostasis treatment by scoring systems of the GBS (a), AIM65 score (b), MAP score (c), Modified GBS (d), Iino score (e) and H3B2 score (f)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
ROC curves comparing the prediction of hemostatic treatment on the GBS, Modified GBS, AIMS65 score, Iino score, MAP score, and H3B2 score
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
ROC curves comparing the prediction of mortality on the GBS, Modified GBS, AIMS65 score, Iino score, MAP score, and H3B2 score

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