A Prolonged Air Leak Score for Lung Cancer Resection: An Analysis of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database

Abstract

Background: The objective of this study was to create a simple preoperative tool to assess the risk of prolonged air leak (PAL) using The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database (STS GTSD).

Methods: The STS GTSD was queried for patients who underwent elective lung cancer resection between 2009 and 2016. Exclusion criteria included pneumonectomy, sleeve lobectomy, chest wall resection, bilateral procedures, and patients with incomplete data sets. The primary outcome was PAL exceeding 5 days. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for a PAL. Model coefficients were used to generate a PAL score (PALS). The approach was cross-validated in 100 replications of a training set consisting of two-thirds of the cohort that was randomly selected and a validation set of remaining patients.

Results: A total of 52,198 patients from the STS GTSD met inclusion criteria, with an overall rate of PAL of 10.4% (n = 5453). Final variables incorporated into the PALS included body mass index of 25 kg/m2 or less (7 points), lobectomy or bilobectomy (6 points), forced expiratory volume in 1 second of 70% predicted or less (5 points), male sex (4 points), and right upper lobe procedure (3 points). A cumulative PALS exceeding 17 points stratified patients as high-risk or low-risk for PAL (19.6% vs 9% rate of PAL) with a cross-validated mean negative predictive value of 91%, positive predictive value of 19%, sensitivity of 30%, specificity of 85%, and correctly classifies 79% of patients.

Conclusions: The PALS is a simple preoperative clinical tool that can reliably risk-stratify patients for PAL who are undergoing lung cancer resection.

Copyright © 2019 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Figures

Figure 1.

The cross-validated receiver operating characteristics curve based on the final prediction model for prolonged air leak in lung cancer resection patients. (AUC, area under the curve.)